The governor is the isolated leader in all scenarios tested by , with voting intention rates above 40% in the first round for the São Paulo government, shows new research from the institute.
Secondly, one of the possible candidates linked to the PT appears — the PT member’s political group has not yet decided on who will run for government in the state. The minister scores better than vice-president Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) and the minister.
Tarcísio also wins the second round scenarios tested by Datafolha, with voting intention rates ranging from 50% to 60%.
The survey was carried out between the 3rd and 5th of March. There were 1,608 interviews throughout the state of São Paulo, distributed in 71 municipalities, with a population aged 16 or over.
The maximum margin of error for the total sample is two percentage points, plus or minus, within the 95% confidence level. The research is registered with the TSE: BR-06798/2026 and SP-04136/2026.
The result of the spontaneous question, when no name is presented to the interviewee, shows that the election for governor has not yet mobilized the population (59% responded that they do not know who they are going to vote for). Tarcísio is the best, with 22% of the nominations (plus 3% who said “the current governor”). Haddad, who has not decided whether he will be a candidate, has 2%, the same poll mark as in April 2025.
When the question is asked — the interviewer presents the names — and regarding the candidates’ level of knowledge, the Minister of Finance is tied, in the margin of error, with the current governor. Exactly half (50%) said they knew Haddad well and 47% said the same about Tarcísio.
Alckmin, four times governor of São Paulo, is known very well by 54% and minister Simone Tebet (MDB), who is from Mato Grosso do Sul, by 22%.
In the scenario stimulated with five names, Tarcísio leads with 44% of voting intentions. He is followed by Haddad, with 31%, by the former mayor of Santo André, Paulo Serra (PSDB), with 5%, by the federal deputy, with 5%, and by commentator Felipe D’Avila (Novo), with 3%.
The governor has higher voting intention percentages among men than among women (49%, compared to 39%), among those aged 60 or over (52%, compared to 30% among those aged between 16 and 24) and among evangelicals (54%, compared to 44% among Catholics).
Haddad has higher voting intention rates among women than among men (34%, compared to 27%), among Catholics than among evangelicals (32%, compared to 21%) and among public servants (48%, compared to 23% among businessmen and 24% among housewives).
If Haddad’s candidacy is confirmed, the dispute with Tarcísio will be fiercer in the capital than in the interior, where the difference between the two is 19 percentage points, with an advantage for the current governor, who receives 47% of voting intentions in the interior compared to 28%. In the metropolitan region, the difference between the two falls, confirming the less conservative nature of the capital. In the region, Tarcísio scores 40% compared to 34% for the PT member.
In 2022, Haddad and Lula, candidate for President, won in the capital, but in the interior Tarcísio beat the current economy minister.
In the second scenario designed by Datafolha, there are five names and Haddad is replaced by . Tarcísio leads with 46%, followed by the vice-president, with 26%, by Serra, with 6%, by Kataguiri, with 5%, and by D’Avila, with 3%. White or null are 13% and undecided, 2%.
In the third scenario, with the inclusion of the minister, Tarcísio appears ahead with 44% of voting intentions. Next comes Haddad, with 28%, França, with 5%, Kataguiri, with 4%, Serra, with 4%, and D’Avila, with 2%. White or null are 11% and undecided, 1%.
In the fourth and final scenario, with five names, and the replacement of França, Haddad and Alckmin by Tebet, Tarcísio appears with 49% of voting intentions. Then comes the minister, with 19%, Serra, with 7%, Kataguiri, with 4%, and D’Avila, with 3%. White or null are 15% and undecided, 2%.
SECOND SHIFT
In the second round scenario between Tarcísio and Haddad, the governor defeats the minister by 52% to 37%. Blank or null are 10% and undecided, 1%.
The governor has a greater advantage over the minister among men (57% to 34%), among those aged 60 or over (57% to 35%), among those with a monthly family income greater than ten minimum wages (64% to 27%), among residents of the interior (57% to 32%) and among evangelicals (64% to 26%).
Even in groups where Haddad scores better, he appears tied on the margin of error with Tarcísio. Among voters aged 16 to 24, the PT member has 43% of voting intentions, while the governor has 45%. Among residents of the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo, Haddad has 42%, compared to 46% for Tarcísio. Among self-declared blacks, the minister appears with 43% and the governor, with 44%.
In the scenario with Tarcísio and Alckmin, the governor defeats the vice president by 50% to 39%, with 10% blank or null and 1% undecided. In the dispute between Tarcísio and França, the first wins the second by 60% to 22%, with 17% blank or null and 1% undecided.
In the scenario with Márcio França (PSB), the governor scores 60% in the second round, against 22%. 17% would vote white, null or none.
Finally, in the scenario between the governor and Tebet, Tarcísio defeats the minister by 58% to 28%. White or null are 12% and undecided, 2%.
REJECTION
Haddad is the most mentioned name (38%) when Datafolha asks which of the possible candidates the interviewee would absolutely not vote for in the first round of the election. Next come Alckmin, with 29%, Tebet, with 27%, Kataguiri, with 25%, and Tarcísio, with 24%.
At a lower level, there are França, with 20%, Paulo Serra, with 19%, and D’Avila, with 18%. A portion of 3% rejects all the candidates, 3% would vote for any of them and another 3% had no opinion.
Haddad has above-average rejection rates among men (44%), among those with a monthly family income of more than 10 minimum wages (59%), among evangelicals (45%), among those who disapprove of the Lula government (60%) and among those who intend to vote for president (65%).
Tarcísio has higher rejection among the most educated (33%), among residents of the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo (29%), among public employees (52%), among those who approve of the Lula government (44%) and among those who intend to vote for the PT member in the presidential election (50%).
