When the Middle East is in conflict, the world trembles
The war in the Middle East once again demonstrated an inescapable reality: what happens in this region never stays just in the region. The military escalation and the disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz have brought one of the biggest pressure points in the world economy back to the center of the global debate. Approximately a quarter of the world’s maritime oil trade and a very significant share of liquefied natural gas pass through there, so any blockage, threat or interruption has an immediate impact on energy prices, transport, inflation and international security.
But the centrality of the Middle East cannot be explained only by the present conflict. It is a region where energy resources, military capacity, strategic maritime corridors and economic hubs with global influence accumulate. Saudi Arabia continues to emerge as a central oil power; Iran combines enormous oil and gas reserves with military heft and regional ambition; Iraq remains among the most relevant countries on the energy map; and Qatar assumes a decisive role in the global liquefied natural gas market. In the case of the Strait of Hormuz alone, the International Energy Agency estimates that around 20 million barrels per day and the vast majority of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas exports transit through there.
Added to this is the military dimension. Iran maintains a central role in the regional strategic balance, including in the nuclear dossier, which continues to be under strong international monitoring. Israel, for its part, maintains a unique position on the Middle East chessboard, both due to its technological and military superiority and the fact that it is not a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Saudi Arabia also remains one of the main regional actors in terms of defense and influence projection.
At the same time, the region does not live solely on oil, gas and war. Turkey has enormous economic weight, the United Arab Emirates has established itself as a global financial and logistics platform, and Egypt retains decisive demographic and geopolitical relevance. It is precisely this combination of energy, military power, strategic location and economic influence that makes the Middle East a true epicenter of the international order. And that is why, when the war intensifies and Hormuz falters, the impact stops being regional and becomes global.
- Facts viewed through a magnifying glass by André Pinção Lucas e Juliano Ventura – A partnership between POSTAL and the Institute
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