Real Time Big Data Research shows governor with an advantage for one of the two Senate seats in 2026
The governor of Rio de Janeiro, (PL), leads the dispute for one of the seats in the Federal Senate in the 2026 elections, according to a Real Time Big Data survey released this Tuesday (11.mar.2026). In consolidated scenario 1, which adds the first and second votes of voters, Castro appears with 23% of intentions.
The former mayor of Rio (Republicans) comes in 2nd place, with 15%. Next come the federal deputy (PT) and the former BOPE captain Rodrigo Pimentel (no party), both with 12%.
In the 2026 election, each voter will be able to vote for up to 2 candidates, because two seats in the State of Rio will be up for grabs in the Senate.
Cláudio Castro’s possible candidacy for the Senate occurs at a time when the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) and the president of Alerj (Rio’s Legislative Assembly), Rodrigo Bacellar (União Brasil). So far, the Electoral Court has 2 votes for revocation. Minister Nunes Marques made a request for review (more time for analysis) on Tuesday (10th March).
If convicted, Castro could lose his mandate and be ineligible for 8 years. He and Bacellar are accused of abuse of political and economic power in the 2022 elections, in an alleged scheme of irregular hiring of around 27,000 temporary employees by Ceperj (State Center for Statistics, Research and Training of Public Servants) and UERJ (University of the State of Rio de Janeiro).
The Real Time Big Data survey interviewed 2,000 voters in the State of Rio de Janeiro from March 9 to 10, 2026. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus, with a 95% confidence level. According to the company that carried out the study, the research cost R$80,000 and was paid for with its own resources. The survey is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under number BR-04367/2026. Read (PDF – 3MB).
Scenario 1 – consolidated (1st + 2nd votes)
- Cláudio Castro (PL) — 23%
- Marcelo Crivella (Republicans) — 15%
- Benedita da Silva (PT) — 12%
- Rodrigo Pimentel (no party) — 12%
- Márcio Canella (União Brasil) — 7%
- Otoni de Paula (PRTB) — 6%
- Null/blank — 14%
- Don’t know/didn’t answer — 11%
Scenario 1 – 1st vote
- Cláudio Castro (PL) — 33%
- Marcelo Crivella (Republicans) — 15%
- Benedita da Silva (PT) — 15%
- Rodrigo Pimentel (no party) — 12%
- Márcio Canella (União Brasil) — 5%
- Otoni de Paula (PRTB) — 4%
- Null/blank — 9%
- Don’t know/didn’t answer — 7%
Scenario 1 – 2nd vote
- Marcelo Crivella (Republicans) — 15%
- Rodrigo Pimentel (no party) — 12%
- Cláudio Castro (PL) — 12%
- Benedita da Silva (PT) — 9%
- Márcio Canella (União Brasil) — 9%
- Otoni de Paula (PRTB) — 8%
- Null/blank — 20%
- Don’t know/didn’t answer — 15%
Scenario 2 – consolidated (1st + 2nd votes)
- Cláudio Castro (PL) — 24%
- Rodrigo Pimentel (no party) — 14%
- Benedita da Silva (PT) — 12%
- Pedro Paulo (PSDB) — 10%
- Márcio Canella (União Brasil) — 7%
- Otoni de Paula (PRTB) — 6%
- Null/blank — 15%
- Don’t know/didn’t answer — 12%
Scenario 2 – 1st vote
- Cláudio Castro (PL) — 36%
- Benedita da Silva (PT) — 16%
- Rodrigo Pimentel (no party) — 13%
- Pedro Paulo (PSDB) — 8%
- Márcio Canella (União Brasil) — 6%
- Otoni de Paula (PRTB) — 5%
- Null/blank — 9%
- Don’t know/didn’t answer — 8%
The research also tested a alternative scenario in which the federal deputy (PSD) appears in Crivella’s place.
Scenario 2 – 2nd vote
- Rodrigo Pimentel (no party) — 15%
- Pedro Paulo (PSDB) — 12%
- Cláudio Castro (PL) — 11%
- Benedita da Silva (PT) — 9%
- Márcio Canella (União Brasil) — 8%
- Otoni de Paula (PRTB) — 7%
- Null/blank — 21%
- Don’t know/didn’t answer — 16%
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