The Minister of Finance, , and the vice-president are leading the dispute in São Paulo, shows . The survey also indicates that possible candidates from the progressive camp score better than those from the right.
The survey was carried out before Haddad decided, this week, that he will leave the Finance portfolio to .
In 2026, voters will vote for two names for the Senate, which will be renewed by two-thirds. The institute tested two scenarios for the dispute, each with ten possible candidates.
In the first, without Alckmin, Haddad appears ahead with 30% of voting intentions. Then, other government ministers emerged — (MDB), with 25%, , with 20%, (Rede), with 18%, and , with 14%.
Among the right-wing pre-candidates, the best positioned are the federal deputies, with 14% of voting intentions, and , with 13%.
Then appear federal deputies Paulinho da Força (Solidariedade), with 10%, and Rosana Valle (PL), a name supported by the former first lady, with 7%. State deputy Gil Diniz (PL), one of the former deputy’s favorites, has 3% of voting intentions.
Another 4% say they don’t know who they will vote for in the first place, while 15% say they intend to vote blank or null. For the second wave, 6% are undecided, and 21% say they will vote blank or null.
The survey was carried out from March 3rd to 5th. There were 1,608 interviews throughout the state of São Paulo, distributed in 71 municipalities, with a population aged 16 or over. The maximum margin of error for the total sample is two percentage points, plus or minus, within the 95% confidence level. The research is registered with the TSE: BR-06798/2026 and SP-04136/2026.
it is most likely that ministers Marina Silva (Environment) and Simone Tebet (Planning) will be the Lulista camp’s candidates for the Senate, for São Paulo, on Haddad’s ticket.
In the first scenario designed by , 58% of those who intend to vote for Lula for president choose Haddad for the Senate, and 38% go with Tebet. The majority of potential voters for the senator, pre-candidate for President, say they would vote for França (27%), Derrite (27%) and Salles (25%).
Voters who indicate their vote for Tarcísio de Freitas for the government, in turn, express a preference for França (26%), Derrite (28%) and Salles (24%).
In the second scenario tested by the institute, without Haddad, Alckmin leads voting intentions for the Senate with 31%. He is followed by ministers Tebet, with 25%, Marina, with 21%, França, with 20%, and Boulos, with 15%.
Then come Salles and Derrite, both with 13%, Paulinho da Força, with 9%, Rosana Valle, with 6%, and Gil Diniz, with 3%.
In this scenario, another 4% say they do not know who they will vote for in the first place, while 14% say they intend to vote blank or null. For the second wave, 6% are undecided, and 20% say they will vote blank or null.
If the left has not yet hammered out which candidates will run for the Senate, the right has in relation to the second vacancy. The first is already consolidated with Derrite, who was secretary of the Tarcísio government and has his support.
According to leaders in the field, there was an agreement for the second vacancy to go to former federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro, son of the former president. The scenario changed after Eduardo went into self-exile in the United States and by the Federal Supreme Court for having helped Donald Trump’s government to apply sanctions to Brazilian authorities, such as the minister.
Since then, allies have argued that the former president’s son should have preference to nominate a candidate in his place. In addition to Gil Diniz, who was his advisor, the former deputy has already mentioned the names of councilor Sonaira Fernandes, who also worked for him, and the federal deputy.
More recently, Bolsonaro reportedly expressed support for the colonel, vice-mayor of São Paulo.
Salles has also stated that he will not give up the dispute, but allies of the former president claim that, after the break between the two, it would be very difficult for the deputy to be able to gather the support of right-wing parties for his candidacy.
