Oil returns to alert levels. The barrel of brenta reference in Europe, has surpassed the psychological barrier of 100 dollars this Thursday, although it has later stabilized at around 96. The war between the United States and Israel against Iran, far from subsiding, is intensifying and Iranian attacks on ships in the waters of the Persian Gulf are intensifying. The calming effect that was expected with the announcement by the International Energy Agency (IEA) of a plan to balance the market has not taken place. The only balm that could ease the extreme tension would be, as the executive director of the IEA himself recalled yesterday, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the recovery of the passage of oil tankers. In its monthly report published today, the IEA warns that “the war in the Middle East is causing the greatest supply interruption in the history of the world oil market” and there is a drastic drop in demand for crude oil in March and April and throughout the year.
Volatility is once again the trend in commodity trading. After touching 101 dollars per barrel early in the morning, the brent It slows down the increases until reaching $98, with an increase of 6.7%. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also advances, up to around $91 per barrel. Natural gas opens with advances of 3.5% in the TTF contracts negotiated in the Netherlands and is placed at 51.6 euros per megawatt hour (Mwh).
Nervousness increases as those sailing through the Persian Gulf increase. Three ships were attacked on Thursday morning, according to the UK Maritime Authority. Two oil tankers were hit by unknown projectiles about five miles south of Basra, Iraq, causing fires on board, and the crews were evacuated. Meanwhile, a container ship was also hit by a projectile 35 miles north of the Jebel Ali port in Dubai.
“Several oil tankers loaded with Iraqi crude oil are burning in the Persian Gulf off the coast of Basra, engulfed in flames and spilling flaming oil into the water,” IG analyst Tony Sycamore told Reuters. “This appears to mark a direct and forceful Iranian response to the IEA’s announcement of a massive release of strategic reserves, with the aim of curbing uncontrolled prices.”
Fear of a long conflict has overshadowed the International Energy Agency’s emergency plan to release 400 million barrels of oil from its reserves, the largest such measure in its history, agreed on Wednesday. In this framework, the United States announced that it would release 172 million barrels of oil starting next week. According to Reuters calculations, the plan can produce about 100 million barrels in a month, that is, 3.3 million barrels per day, very little compared to the 20 million that have stopped moving due to the closure of Hormuz.
Asked why the price of oil is rising again despite the IEA’s move, Warren Patterson, head of commodities at ING, points out that “firstly, there are no signs of de-escalation in the Persian Gulf, so there is no end in sight to the disruptions in the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, regarding the release coordinated by the IEA, there are concerns about the speed at which this oil will reach the market and whether it will be enough to paralyze the market until oil is seen flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again.” In his opinion, “the only way for oil prices to continue falling sustainably is for oil to flow through the Strait of Hormuz. If this is not achieved, the market’s highs are yet to come.”
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The maps and keys that explain how the Strait of Hormuz influences the war in Iran
The flow of the IEA’s strategic reserves “is nothing compared to the 20 million barrels per day of interruption due to the closure of Hormuz,” adds Neil Beveridge, director of research at Sanford C. Bernstein, to Bloomberg. For now, the International Energy Agency itself foresees in its monthly report published today a drastic decrease in global oil demand in March and April due to widespread flight cancellations and the reduction in the use of liquefied petroleum gases. The increase in prices and its impact on economic growth also predict lower demand for crude oil for the year as a whole. The IEA now expects global oil consumption to grow by 640,000 barrels per day, a downward revision from the February forecast of 850,000 barrels per day and the 930,000 barrels per day forecast in January. “OECD oil consumption is expected to lose momentum during the second and third quarters of 2026 due to the impact of the disruption of supplies from the Gulf and the resulting increase in oil prices,” the IEA report explains.
The barrel of oil has risen more than 27 dollars, 38%, in the almost two weeks since the conflict began, going from the previous 72.5 dollars to surpassing the barrier of 100. Volatility has reached levels never seen before and if on Monday the barrel reached close to 120 dollars, in a few hours the price fell to around 90 after the president of the United States, Donald Trump, predicted a war, and even called the war for “almost finished.” Despite the messages from the US president, given the signs that the conflict is getting worse as the days go by, the brent goes back to 100 dollars.
Oil at $100 raises the risks of prices and inflation going out of control around the world. Yesterday it was learned that in the United States inflation rose 0.3% in February, in line with forecasts, a figure prior to the attacks.
Since midweek, Iran has stepped up attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and authorities in Tehran have gone so far as to tell the world to prepare for an oil price of $200 per barrel. Three more merchant ships were hit in Gulf waters on Wednesday, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said its forces had fired on ships in the Gulf that had disobeyed its orders. In another sign of instability, Oman evacuated all ships from its Mina Al Fahal oil export terminal on Thursday as a “precautionary measure,” Bloomberg reported.
The crucial Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil normally flows, remains virtually closed, causing major Gulf producers to reduce output. The prices of natural gas and derived products such as diesel have skyrocketed along with crude oil, with the brent and the WTI.
The abrupt swings in raw materials seem likely to continue. Goldman Sachs has warned that oil prices could exceed the 2008 peak if flows through Hormuz remain inactive in March, according to a note reported by Bloomberg. That year, the brent reached a high of $147.50 per barrel due to increased demand and stagnant supply.
