Twelve days have passed since the start of the war in , the two warring sides are continuing military operations. and they have the upper hand in terms of material means without having found a way to translate it into victory yet, while the Islamic Republic seems to be choosing to spread the front in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean.
Until now, the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, the Iranian drone attacks on a number of Middle Eastern countries – but also in Cyprus – and the massacre in the Iranian city of Minab, where 175 people – including many little girls – lost their lives in a primary school remain the most important events of the war.
Barbara Slevin, a fellow at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington and an expert on US-Iranian relations, spoke to Vima about the war, the succession situation in Iran after the assassination of Khamenei, US and Israeli pursuits and the Donald Trump factor.
Critics of Israel claim that Prime Minister Netanyahu dragged the US into war with Iran. Do you share the same opinion?
Not exactly. Netanyahu has wanted to bomb Iran since at least 2012. However, he knows that without US involvement, such an effort would not be very successful and would leave Israel open to significant retaliation. Donald Trump is the first US president to be convinced by Netanyahu that military action is the solution to the Iran problem. So I would say that although the timing of the conflict was influenced by Netanyahu, the blame lies with Trump. In any case there was no reason for this war, no immediate threat to the US or Israel.
The selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s supreme leader shows a sense of continuity in power. Ultimately, does the Iranian regime remain intact or is the fear of collapse still alive?
For now, the regime is being held together and consolidated around someone who is able to continue his father’s policies. This is helped by the fact that there is no longer a separation between conservatives and reformers, as the latter have been decimated after 2009. The conservatives are in power in collaboration with the Revolutionary Guards.
One criticism leveled at Trump since day one of the war has to do with the succession situation. After all, is there a “next day” plan? Or is it true that Trump is trying to repeat the precedent of Venezuela in Iran?
There is no “next day” plan as far as I know. Indeed, the Trump administration has repeatedly insisted that it is not engaged in the process of “state building.” What we are watching happen is a random roll, capable of leaving Iran weaker but intact, and in a second time with significant power to destabilize the region and strike back at the US. Iran is not Venezuela.
It is much larger with a more established system and is 9,650 km from the US. Also, as far as I know, there is no Delcy Rodriguez in Iran.
And what is Iran’s strategy? How do you explain the attacks, not only against the Gulf states but also against Turkey or Azerbaijan?
Iran’s strategy is to force an early truce by increasing the cost to its neighbors in order for them to put pressure on Tel Aviv and Washington. President Trump claims to have destroyed Iran’s military capabilities but Tehran has a strong stockpile of drones, which have been used with devastating consequences for a number of countries in the region.
In any case, this will not end quickly and will become bloodier as time goes on. The regime in Iran may be unpopular but it is tough and resilient, there are forces committed to the regime and if the calculation is that bombing will force Iran to surrender, that is not going to happen. Worse, the longer the war continues, the more innocent people will be killed.
