Mayors and municipal councils in around 35,000 regions are called upon to be elected by French citizens, who go to the polls on the next two Sundays (March 15 and 22). Beyond the emergence of local authorities, the municipal elections are a “rehearsal” for the crucial presidential elections of 2027, with the parties competing to strengthen their political base.
The way municipal elections are conducted makes it extremely difficult for any party to dominate clearly. If a ballot receives an absolute majority in the first round, it wins the municipality outright. If not, the lists with at least 10% advance to the second round, often leading to three- or four-way matchups in the second round.
The map and the territory
In the two largest municipalities of the country, the durability of the institutional parties is confirmed. A tough showdown is imminent in Paris between Emmanuel Grégoire of the Socialist Party and Rashida Dati of the centre-right Republicans. In Lyon, the current mayor Gregoire Doucet (Environmentalist) is supported by the broader Center-Left but the candidate of the broader Right, Jean-Michel Aulas.
In Marseille the picture is different. The mayor, Benoît Payan, is running for re-election with the support of the traditional Left, against the far-right MP Frank Alissio, with both exceeding 30% of opinion polls. The double-digit percentages of the candidates of the Republicans and of the party of the radical left France Insubordinate, foresee a battle “chest to chest” between the two poles, describing the big question of the election concerning the strengthening of the far-right National Rally (RN), which after its first in the snap parliamentary elections of 2024 is trying to strengthen its political base.
The party of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardela has not managed to translate the national into self-governing power, since only a dozen mayors belong to or are supported by the RN, while the only city of more than 100,000 inhabitants it governs is Perpignan. A report by Le Monde estimates that the party is “targeting” two more major cities, Nice and Toulon, taking advantage of splits in the traditional center-right.
In the same publication, it is noted that the main objective of the faction is to prevail in medium-sized municipalities (over 20,000 inhabitants), in the north-east and south-east of France.
The leadership of the party itself appeared measured in the previous period, with Bardella declaring on the one hand that “political changes start in the town halls” and on the other hand that “the National Rally can win a few more municipalities”.
It is not known whether the debate will affect the performance of the party, which was beaten in February by people allegedly belonging to the Far Left and linked to a lawmaker from France Independent. Because of the shocking incident, during the pre-election period, as the opinion polls confirm (44% of respondents from the Elabe institute have a worse opinion of the party than before).
However, the Insubordinate France candidates in big cities – Paris, Marseille – have a role of regulator, while they claim the lead in the cities of Saint-Denis and Roubaix.
As for the faction of President Emmanuel Macron, it seeks to keep its presence alive in self-government through participation in alliances, mainly with center-right parties (Republicans, MoDem). The mayor of Le Havre and former prime minister of Macron, Edouard Philippe, is running for re-election, being the most emblematic case of a “Macronist” candidate.
Presidential messages
The result of the municipal elections may not determine the presidential, but the messages that will be extracted will shape a certain image. “Even if the RN doesn’t win many big cities, victories in smaller municipalities will give it valuable governing experience and further legitimize it in the eyes of voters as a ‘normal’ power,” Mojtaba Rahman, a France analyst at risk analysis firm Eurasia Group, told Politico.
He estimates that each faction has its own goals for the 2027 presidential elections: Mélenchon is fighting to remain the main spokesman of the Left, displacing more moderate Socialist candidates, while the centrist camp aspires to find the person who will be able to push RN and Insubordinate France from the Champs Elysees in the near future.
The second round of the municipal elections will show whether the “front” that the voters usually form to block the path of the Far Right to power continues to be valid. “For decades, French democracy relied on the willingness of voters to unite across ideological divisions to prevent the rise of extremists, especially the Far Right. “Whether this instinct will remain alive in 2027 is perhaps the defining question of next year’s election,” emphasizes Rahman.
