Of the 4,000 soldiers that Spain has distributed in 18 international missionssomething more than 1,000 are now deployed in the areas most at risk of the Iran war spreading. The majority, in units that cannot provide all their defense on their own. They are in four vertices that surround the epicenter of the attacks by the US and Israel against the Tehran regime, and are at seams that could break and stop encapsulating the conflict: Lebanon, Iraq, Eastern Mediterranean and Türkiye.
“With four hot spots, we have many ballots for some incident“comments a colonel expert in the missions in Lebanon. Spain did not know highest level of exposure since the second Gulf War -of which the president gave the order to withdraw Rodriguez Zapatero-, and since the deployment in Afghanistan.
The two preceding ones seem to Admiral Juan Rodríguez Garat and Brigadier General Miguel Ángel Balleteros -retired- moments of greater danger than now, but neither of them would risk anything with the current situation.
Iraq and Lebanon are the most dangerous and pressing areas of Spanish deployment. They are also the ones that have caused visible defense movements this weekend.
In both danger areas, the priority now is what this Monday, at the Madrid base of El Goloso, summarized the Chief of the Army Staff, General Amador Enseñat: “Order is the protection of force.”
Lebanon: invasion underway
What this Sunday was an imminent prediction has been fulfilled in the Lebanon’s border with Israel, the one that 10,000 blue helmets must guard of the UN, including 650 Spaniards from the Guadarrama XII Brigade. Israel’s ground forces, after days of preparation with bombings and missiles, have launched themselves after Hezbollah, Iran’s armed wing in the region.
Like others, the offensive had been partially announced in leaks from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to the media in that country. During the days in which the IDF has carried out airstrikes against Hezbollah, and it has returned them with rockets, Spanish soldiers have been “bunkerized.”
Spanish blue helmets deployed in Lebanon waiting to board a helicopter in Kafer Kela, in the south of the country. / Pasqual GORRIZ/UN
This term has been in wide circulation for two years in the UNIFIL mission. It alludes to the underground shelters at points along the border Blue Line, but above all under the prefabricated shells of the Marjayún base, headquarters of the Libre Hidalgo operation, the Spanish deployment in the United Nations mission.
This Monday, the Minister of Defense, Margarita Robles, He connected with Marjayún in a videoconference from the El Goloso tank base (Madrid). And the chief general of Libre Hidalgo told him, Antonio Bernalthat their forces count between 60 and 70 exchanges of aerial and artillery fire of Israel and Hezbollah… up to date.
Push Hezbollah
The offensive has begun just when Cavalry units of the Guadarrama XII Brigade had managed to “recover their heads” -Bernal said- to evaluate the situation. The first thing they have seen: there are many stretches of road destroyed by missiles.
Various international analysts, including the Israeli Institute for Counter Terrorism (ICT), have pointed out that Israel’s objective is to take sine the a part of the country, like the 18 year occupation that canceled Ariel Sharon in the year 2000. It is all the Lebanese territory south of the Litani River, a strip from which they are trying to expel Hezbollah and keep its rocket launchers away from northern Israel. The other risk is that, if Israel’s offensive fragments Hezbollah, the anarchy of its different platoons will increase.
Wall of the AT (Support Turkey) mission facilities at Incirlik Air Base. / Rubén Somonte MDE
Before this offensive, which could prolong the war As far as anyone dares to point out on a calendar, Israel has already made raids to liquidate Hezbollah commandos. He carries them out the 769th Brigade of his army, the Hiramwhich faces the positions of the Spanish blue helmets, the same unit from which a tank fired warning shots and intimidated a Spanish patrol with its laser sight on January 12.
General Bernal has assured from Lebanon that his troops are not in extreme danger, since “We are not targets for any of the elements in conflict.” He said this when Robles invited him to say some words that would reassure the families of the Spaniards deployed there.
But the same minister asked for it. This Saturday he held talks with the UN assistant secretary general for peace missions, Jean Pierre Lacroixand with the Italian general who commands the entire United Nations Interim Force for Lebanon, Diodato Abagnarato ask them to transmit to Israel Spain’s demand that it “respect people’s lives”.
Iraq: Salir de Erbil
The Minister of Defense had these conversations at the same time that the Operations Command, the same weekend, completed a withdrawal – “provisional”, according to Robles – of the Spanish troops of Special Operations and the National Intelligence Center (CNI) who were deployed in the Erbil city area to help the Iraqi army against the Islamic State and other insurgencies.
The countries participating in the Inherent Resolve operation led by the United States, and the NMI promoted by NATO, have decided evacuate their military from the North American base in which they were, for the risk of Iranian ballistic missiles or asymmetric actions of militias proxys from Tehran.
The operation has been carried out discreetly: at the moment it does not transcend the new settlement of the Spanish forces.
Threat proliferation
No one could say whether the danger is greater south of the Lebanese Litani River or in the Kurdish province of Erbil. Spanish soldiers have died in both countries. What all observers of the conflict do maintain is that Iraq is, with the Strait of Hormuz, the main area of expansion of Iran’s war, lhe first seams that burst, practically at the beginning of the bombings of the US and Israel on Iran.
A medical evacuation by Spanish soldiers from the Special Operations Command deployed in Iraq in 2022. / ET
General Ballesteros remembers that “60 groups armed and trained by Iran operate in Iraq, with light weapons, but also with drones and Kasam rockets, like the Houthis of Yemen.” Among them, the Hashd militias and similar groupswho are suspected of being able to attacking Iraqi oil infrastructure to exacerbate international crude oil shortages, or hit American interests in an escalation within an escalation.
These groups “now lack direct support from Iran, which has its problems,” explains the colonel, an expert in the area. “But that’s the same increases their autonomy and makes them unpredictable”, tints.
Türkiye: mermaids in Adana
One hundred and fifty anti-aircraft gunners serve the two Patriot missile launchers sent from Cartagena to Adana, in Türkiye, from one end of the Mediterranean to the other. Its mission is protect a NATO base in Asia Minor, Incirlik, which Iran has tried to harm with three ballistic missiles against which, in at least two of the cases, the Spanish radars have intervened.
Two Spanish Patriot missile launchers at the Turkish NATO air base of Incirlik. In the background, the city of Adana. / ET
The risk is proven: to hit Incirlik, the Patriot shuttles and their radars must first be destroyed. If an attack bypasses this barrier, it would force NATO to make a determination.
Air raid sirens have blared in Adana for five nights now. It doesn’t seem like Tehran is interested in that, but the same can’t be said about the possibility of a false flag attack or what factions of the Revolutionary Guard are planning. beheaded by bombings, but with access to missiles and drones Sahed.
Cyprus: hot waters
with the numeronym C-802 is known to be the main threat against ships of war that France, Italy, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Spain have sent to protect Cyprus after Iran’s first attacks against Western interests on the island. The C-802 is a designer subsonic anti-ship missile Chinese, model of various versions modified by Iran. Hezbollah has proven to have this missile at least since 2006.
The security operational team (EOS) of the frigate Cristóbl Colón, on board its ship. / Armada
Drones also give food for thought naval combat group accompanying the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaullewhich includes the Spanish frigate Christopher Columbus. It is the best armed combat ship in Spain, with a modernized Aegis anti-aircraft shield. But “The problem is saturation.” -explains an admiral expert in the F-100 series of frigates-: on board you carry a limited number of missiles and other anti-drone responsess like the Iranians, who could arrive in various waves.”
Another admiral, Rodríguez Garat, qualifies the risk: “The frigate is very far from the scenario” that Iran now prioritizeswhich is the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, the European combat group is very deterrent due to the power that its response could have to an Iranian attack that, on the other hand, would further isolate Tehran.
However, there is always the risk that Iran will look desperate or that one of the regional militias it has been shepherding until now – and which have threatened France – consider that Europe, deep down, helps the United States and Israel.
“We had it worse in Afghanistan,” says Garat. “In Iraq they fought gun battles; there are several medals with a red badge That’s why…”, recalls Ballesteros. And now… the admiral uses caution: “There are always risks.”
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