In the negotiations for the extension of his free trade agreement con USA y Canada, Mexico search for something that is deeply scarce in the world of Donald Trump: certainty. The bilateral discussion tables (Canada has not yet joined the negotiation), which began this week, are part of a review scheduled after 6 years of the agreement. But the conversations are anything but routine. The American government has threatened more than once with duty that break the terms of the pact.
The Agreement between Mexico, the United States and Canada (USMCA) was built in Trump’s first term, replacing the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which the three countries maintained for more than two decades. The objective of the agreements is not only to facilitate commercial transit, but also to integrate production lines between the three nations: during its manufacture, an object can cross borders several times.
However, the close collaboration, which catapulted Mexico to become the main business partner of the United States, is reeling in the hands of the Republican. The delays threaten to extend an uncertainty that has slowed investment, destroyed the possibility of planning for entire sectors and, according to experts, threatened the bloc’s ability to face the crisis. chinese hegemony in international trade.
In 2020, when the agreement was signed, valid for 16 years, Trump called it a “colossal victory” for his Government. Five years later, the president believes that it is “an irrelevant agreement for the United States.”
Investment uncertainty
The impositions protectionists They blew up the certainty that investors found in the integration of the production chains of the three countries. Renegotiating the agreement is a complex challenge for Mexico and Canada, which allocate a very high percentage of their exports—80% and 75%, respectively—to the country that separates them.
In a recent report, the law firm White and Case, specialized in advising American companies in Mexico, proposed three scenarios: a quick review, a complex review with regulatory developments, or a breach of the treaty. The three parties have until July 1 to secure an agreement. If they do not achieve it, the pact will walk on the tightrope every year until 2036. In the worst case, any country can announce its withdrawal unilaterally.
The Secretary of Economy of Mexico, Marcelo Ebrardtraveled to Washington to open talks with the White House trade representative, Jameson Greer. Before leaving, he made his objectives clear: the permanence of the agreement and the elimination of the tariffs that the United States imposed in 2025.
In statements to local media NMás, Ebrard explained that during the first round, both countries would present an overview. At the end of the first meeting, the teams released a joint statement, initially a positive sign. However, the text included a list of regulations that the delegations are going to review and that could be a headache for strategic sectors, such as the automotive industry.
Limited expectations
Outside of the technical specificities, what worries experts most is that the negotiations will drag on and the discussion and uncertainty will become an annual occurrence. “I believe that with Trump we are going to continue having this conversation next year and all the years that remain,” he warns in a telephone interview. Gabriela Sillerdirector of Economic Analysis at Grupo Financiero BASE.
Valeria Moygeneral director of the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO), agrees. The expert maintains limited expectations about the country’s negotiating capacity in the face of a Trump Administration that prospers in the chaos and go to maximalist demands as a strategy. If the president extracts concessions from Mexico every time he presses the trade button, there is no reason for him to successfully close negotiations, he explains.
“It is clear that the president of the United States’ way of negotiating includes everything. It is not just trade,” warns Moy. The conversations, he emphasizes, will include pressure in other areas, especially security.
Last year, Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all Mexican and Canadian products on account of its alleged permissiveness in the trafficking of fentanyl. The justification changed throughout the year, to also include complaints about the trade deficit or the proximity between Mexico and China.
Guiño to Trump
The Government of Claudia Sheinbaum has sought to anticipate the complaints of the American delegation. The same day as the trade meeting, the Secretary of Security, Omar García Harfuch, traveled to Washington to discuss cooperation between his portfolio and the FBI. In turn, in January, the country imposed 50% tariffs on China. The decision was seen as a wink a Trump.
Siller believes it was a mistake and that one of the Mexican negotiating cards was spent. However, he has a positive perspective on the country’s possibilities at the bilateral table. The economist believes that the fact that Trump’s attention is dispersed throughout the war against Iran could benefit the conversations.
The expert also finds some hope in the capacity that Mexico demonstrated to navigate the murky Trumpian waters. Mexico closed last year not only as the United States’ main supplier, but also as its largest buyer, he explains. This occurred during the biggest tariff threats from Trump, who has also proven to be much harsher with Canada than with his Latin American counterpart.
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