Forecasts are difficult, especially when they have to do with the future: Yes, eh. What is also expressed in this well-known but nevertheless excellent joke, apart from the unpredictability of tomorrow: fatalism. And this is very unevenly distributed in this world: 72% of Germans believe that their life and success are primarily the result of external – i.e. uncontrollable – circumstances. Exactly twice as many as in the USA. Even more blatant: Only a quarter of Germans believe that social advancement is possible through performance – in Sweden, seven out of ten do. Some, according to the political scientist, military strategist and futurologist Florence Gaub scenarioapparently finds it more difficult than others to “understand the future as a space of possibility”. So it offers us exactly that: possibilities. Decision paths. As the reader, you take on the role of an independent strategic analyst who learns about the accident of a Norwegian research ship off Spitsbergen. An accident? Result of a drone attack or cyber manipulation of the ship’s computer? Since your geopolitical attention has long been focused on the Arctic and especially its importance for Russia, you decide to do some research. “Your next options”: Ask Moscow directly, make inquiries on site in Tromsø or bring in the missing actor in this scenario – Beijing. Each of these options will be presented to you with an opportunity-risk assessment. scenario is a strategy game book in which you have to find your own path – with the main difference that everything that is assumed is based on proven facts. In the first attempt I managed to destroy my career in just five moves, in the second it took me a little longer to end up in prison… Gaub reassures: “Scenarios, no matter how negative, always lead to an awareness of self-efficacy in the end.” And also, and this is probably the even greater achievement of this special title, to that of one’s own thought patterns and (pre)judgments.
