The idyll of the far-right leader Giorgia Meloni with the electorate has been broken. This Monday, the Italian head of government suffered her first defeat at the polls in three and a half years, since she won the 2022 general elections, in a . After the polls closed at 3:00 p.m., since voting was done on Sunday and Monday, the no has prevailed with 53.7%, with 99% of the schools already counted. More than 14 million votes compared to 12 million in favor of yes. With a very high participation, 58.9%, it is a very strong political signal that, in fact, inaugurates the final stretch for the next general elections, scheduled for September 2027, if they are not brought forward.
Until now, the legislature had run smoothly for Meloni, without the slightest deterioration in the polls. And despite its solid absolute majority, the Government has hardly undertaken any major reforms, but at least it managed its accounts prudently, and above all, it sold its international image well as Donald Trump’s best friend in Europe. But with all this it has collapsed. and there is fear of a brutal economic crisis in a country with a stagnant economy.
Shortly before 5:00 p.m., the prime minister herself admitted defeat with a video posted on social networks and suffered the blow, which is hard for the right-wing coalition, because in reality it was . “The Italians have decided. And we respect this decision. We will continue forward, as we have always done, with responsibility, determination and respect for the Italian people and for Italy,” he acknowledged.
The reaction of the people, precisely, is the most important data in this consultation, since Meloni has always exalted the popular will when they have issued sentences that stopped some of their political initiatives, such as the deportations of migrants to Albania. But a majority of Italians have not followed her in this. The referendum has surprised by a very high participation, since 58.9% is almost at the level of a general election (in the last one it was 63.9%) and exceeds that registered in the last European elections in 2024 (49.7%).
Symptom of her nervousness in recent days, Meloni herself had contributed to degenerating the debate by saying, for example, that if the reform did not go ahead it would mean “illegal immigrants, rapists, pedophiles, drug traffickers released.” It had nothing to do with the reform that was being asked about, but the right had already come to present it in these terms.
It is a populist strategy that has not worked, in fact, it may have mobilized left-wing voters, and will require reflection in the government coalition. Pending detailed analysis, it is evident that a portion of right-wing voters have also voted against the reform. The youngest have been decisive: 61% of those between 18 and 34 years old have opted “no”.
A reform that changed the Constitution
The high participation, which breaks the debates about the disinterest in politics and alters years of slow decline in turnout at the polls, is proof that this referendum had become a tough political battle. Beyond what was voted on, the separation of the careers of judges and prosecutors, a very technical but profound issue. Since it changed seven articles of the Constitution and had been approved without a reinforced majority in Parliament, only with an absolute majority, it had to go through the polls in a confirmatory referendum, which also did not require quorum. Whoever had one more vote won, which is why for the Government and the opposition it became a test of the strength of the mobilization of the electorate itself.
The debate has become polarized to the point of becoming almost an existential struggle, which has awakened the electorate. The underlying issues of the reform opposed two political worlds and have polarized the scenario. The right, confronted with the judiciary since the time of Silvio Berlusconi, presented it as a historical settling of accounts that finally did justice with an overly politicized Prosecutor’s Office. The opposition, as the first sibylline step towards control of justice and a possible authoritarian drift. For Meloni, it has been “a missed opportunity to modernize Italy.” But for the opposition, “a victory for democracy.”
The consultation was already a vote for or against the Executive, and especially Giorgia Meloni, who in the last two weeks had become personally involved in the campaign and, therefore, paid for her exposure. This is a loud alarm signal for the right-wing coalition (Meloni’s Brothers of Italy; Matteo Salvini’s League; and Antonio Tajani’s Forza Italia, Berlusconi’s successor). More specifically, the highest price is paid by Forza Italia, since this reform was a commitment of theirs included in the program, a historic battle of the party since the times of Berlusconi. Meloni has given him his support, although he did not arouse enthusiasm in his party, much less in the League.
The prime minister had already warned months ago that the result had no relation to the Government’s action and if she lost the vote she did not plan to resign, but already this Monday afternoon some voices have been raised that have suggested that perhaps she should consider it. Like that of Matteo Renzi, for obvious reasons: in 2016, when he was prime minister, about an ambitious institutional reform.
The opposition is already full. Above all Elly Schlein, general secretary of the Democratic Party (PD) and whose leadership was still being discussed. He has also thrown himself personally into the campaign and a failure could have meant his political defenestration. But she has undoubtedly emerged very strengthened from this test, decisive for the future of her party and her own. “From this extraordinary democratic participation, Meloni and the Government have received a clear political message, and now they must reflect, they must listen to the country and the true priorities,” he declared after confirming the victory of the no vote. He has admitted that he has gone “beyond expectations.”
The engines for the general elections were immediately started and the always postponed issue of forming a large centre-left coalition resurfaces with new force. Giuseppe Conte, leader of the 5 Star Movement (M5S), the second opposition party, has already proposed in mid-afternoon to organize a joint primary with the PD to choose the candidate.
