Italy’s conservative Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni faces a crucial political test in a two-day referendum on judicial reform that began Sunday. The vote, initially presented as a technical review of the justice system, has turned into a broader judgment on her leadership, both internally and externally.
The reform unified the center-left opposition, making the referendum a symbolic showdown over Meloni’s strength, one year before national elections. Recent polls show a tight race, with the “No” camp gaining strength in a polarized climate where participation can be decisive. After 12 hours of voting on the first day, turnout reached 38% of eligible voters, the highest ever recorded for a two-day referendum.
Lorenzo Pregliasco, a political analyst, said a rejection of the reform would have significant political weight, weakening Meloni’s aura of invincibility and boosting the center-left opposition.
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Meloni initially avoided associating her image with the referendum, fearing that a defeat could weaken her. However, as the vote approached and polls narrowed she fully embraced the “Yes” campaign, accusing parts of the judiciary of hindering the government’s work on migration and security.
His stern warnings have drawn criticism from magistrates and the center-left, who argue the reforms would threaten judicial independence. Analysts say the referendum has international implications, with Meloni facing the risk of appearing subservient to US President Donald Trump, whose foreign policy faces growing disapproval among Italians.
A defeat in the referendum would not force Meloni to resign, but it could diminish his credibility in the European Union (EU). The referendum focuses on long-debated reforms aimed at reshaping the structure of the Italian judiciary, including the separation of the careers of judges and prosecutors and changes to the Superior Council of the Judiciary.
