Difference is in rejection; governor of São Paulo is repelled by only 37.5% against 46.1% for Bolsonaro’s son
A survey released this Wednesday (25th March 2026) shows that the senator (PL-RJ) and the governor (Republicanos-SP) have equal performance in the 2nd round against the president (PT). Read the research (PDF – 4.6 MB).
AtlasIntel asked the following questions: “In a possible 2nd round in the next elections for President of the Republic in 2026, how would you vote in each of the following scenarios?” e “Which of the politicians listed below would you absolutely not vote for?”.
In the dispute for a possible 2nd round against the son of the former president (PL), Lula recorded 46.6% against 47.6% for Flávio. In the scenario with the governor of São Paulo, the difference is a little smaller. Tarcísio has 47.2%, while Lula has 46.3%.
According to the survey, the difference lies in rejection. The governor of São Paulo is only rejected by 37.5% against 46.1% for Bolsonaro’s son. Lula, on the other hand, has a 52% rejection rate among those interviewed.
The survey was carried out by AtlasIntel Bloomberg from March 18 to 23, 2026. 5,028 people aged 16 were interviewed. The confidence interval is 95%. The margin of error is 1 percentage point, plus or minus. The survey is registered with the TSE under number BR-04227/2026. The research cost R$75,000 and was paid for with its own resources.
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