Annualized rate dropped from 4.10% in February to 3.90% this month; inflation target is 3%
The preview of inflation measured by the IPCA-15 (Broad National Consumer Price Index-15) slowed from 0.84% in February to 0.44% in March. The (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) announced that the monthly rate was the highest for the month since 2024, when it was 0.36.
The annualized rate –accumulated over 12 months– also slowed down. It went from 4.10% in February to 3.90% in March. Here is the publication (PDF – 416 kB).
The increase of 0.44% was above the median of financial agents’ projections, which was 0.29% in March.
The IBGE said that all 9 groups of products and services surveyed registered positive changes – price increases – in March compared to February. The main highlights were:
- Food and drinks (+0.88%), with an impact of 0.19 percentage points (pp);
- Personal expenses (+0.82%), as high as 0.09 pp.
The 2 groups accounted for an increase of 0.28 pp in the IPCA-15, or more than half the rate (0.44%).
The rise in prices in the food and beverage group was driven by food at home, which accelerated from 0.09% in February to 1.10% in March. The following items contributed to this result:
- Açaí (+29.95%);
- Pinto beans (+16.69%);
- Chicken egg (+7.54%);
- Long life milk (+4.46%);
- Carnes (+1,45%).
The IBGE said that ground coffee (-1.76%) and fruits (-1.31%) registered deflation in March, when prices fell.
Eating away from home slowed down during the month. The increase went from 0.46% in February to 0.35% in March.
In the group of personal expenses, the result was influenced by the sub-items banking services (+2.12%) and domestic employee (+0.59%).
Rising prices for health plans (+0.49%), residential electricity (+0.29%) and airline tickets (+5.94%) contributed to the IPCA-15 rate of 0.44%.
IPCA-15
The IPCA-15 is similar to the IPCA (Extended National Consumer Price Index), used to measure the country’s official inflation. The only difference is the data collection period. In general, the inflation preview uses data from the 16th of the month prior to the 15th of the reference month as a basis. The IPCA-15 covers families with incomes of 1 to 40 minimum wages, whatever the source of income, residing in 11 urban areas.
Brazil’s official inflation was . The target is 3%, with a tolerance of 1.5% to 4.5%. The median projections of financial agents in the Focus Bulletin indicate that the IPCA rate will end 2026 at 4.17%.
