When listening to some of the messages that Donald Trump and his lieutenants have launched lately, one would think that the ayatollah regime in Iran It is now history and war It has resulted in the most overwhelming victory since the times of Napoleon or Genghis Khan. “We have won this war”Trump proclaimed on Tuesday after stating that “the Iran terrorist regime is being totally destroyed.” Or “never in history has a modern army been so quickly obliterated and defeated,” his Secretary of War later said, Pete Hegseth. The problem is that these claims are pure fantasy, propaganda for internal consumption. One month after the start of military aggression It seems that it is Tehran that has the keys to the conflict. And Trump is the belligerent actor with the most pressure to shelve the war as soon as possible.
The Republican frequently uses what some sociologists call the mirror tactic: essentially attributing to others what one feels or what one is accused of. And this week, after putting his penultimate ultimatum to Iran on hold to open a negotiation path parallel to the armed conflict, he repeated that Tehran “is desperate to reach an agreement.” This statement not only contradicts the attitude demonstrated until now by the ayatollahs, but Trump has privately informed those close to him that wants to end the war soon, according to several American media. In those conversations he would have told them that the conflict is a distraction that prevents him from pursuing other priorities.
But there’s more than just your valuable time at stake. This war—to which the United States was dragged by Israel, as members of its Administration have recognized—is very unpopular with the public United States. Their approval rarely reaches 40%. And the street is beginning to feel it in your pocket. He gallon of gasoline has increased more than a dollar since its inception, while the fertilizers They appreciated 50% in international markets. The OECD now predicts that inflation in the world’s leading economy will increase this year to 4.2%, doubling the desired levels. To make matters worse, the US stock markets experienced their worst disaster since February 28with a drop of Nasdaq of 10%. Some Republican congressmen have warned that the conflict could cost their party the November legislative elections.
A more radical and strengthened regime
Not all that glitters is gold on the battlefield either. Iran has not collapsed politically or militarily. His regime maintains a tight control of the country despite the beheading of its leaders, who have been quickly replaced by more radical ones. And the most strategic and vital point for the world economy in the region, where freedom of navigation prevailed, is now under its control. Not only that, but Tehran is making money with the few oil tankers it allows to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
“Iran wants this “war of attrition”Nate Swanson, a former US diplomat who participated in negotiations with Tehran last year, told The Washington Post. “Once the war started they had two objectives: one was to survive, the other to survive more than Trump. To make the US feel so much pain through the economy and the attacks on the energy infrastructure, that it will not do it again.” A message that is also addressed to Israel and the Arab Gulf countries, seriously punished for their bombings.
Iranian missile arsenal
So much so that Saudi Arabia y Emirates They are now putting pressure behind the scenes to intensify the attacks, according to several media outlets. They know that, if it ends like this, a disaster awaits them. wounded, paranoid and, to some extent, strengthened neighborafter demonstrating its ability to inflict very high costs on them despite its declared neutrality.
Not only that. Reuters published on Friday that the bulk of the Iranian missile arsenal would be intact, unlike its navy or its anti-aircraft defenses. The American intelligence They have only been able to confirm the destruction of a third of their arsenal. And as the Israelis and the US military also know, that is not insignificant firepower. According to the ‘New York Times’, “many of the 13 military bases” that Washington has in the region “they have been left uninhabitable” due to damage caused by Iranian missiles and drones. An unprecedented blow.
The question is what direction the war, described as “a disastrous political mistake” by the always restrained German president, Frank Walter Steinmeier. Trump has extended the deadline to continue negotiations until April 6, but as the terms proposed by Washington become known, fatalism increases. “The American position is essentially the surrender of Iranwhile the Iranian response is essentially the American surrender”said Ilan Goldenberg, a former adviser to the Biden Administration.
If the dialogue fails, as it seems at the moment, Trump promises destroy power plants Iranians, to which Iran has responded by promising to do its own in the Gulf countries. It would be total war, a war of mutual destruction, which could get even muddier if the infantry that the Pentagon has sent to the region goes into action with some localized invasion of Iranian territory. Wow that “excursion” of Trump in the old Persiaare “military operation” Putin, as he has come to define it, could become his Ukraine and his Vietnam as soon as the first US soldier sets foot in Iran.
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