The profile of a moderate politician claimed by the senator (PL-RJ) provokes a challenge to his pre-candidacy for the Presidency. On the one hand, allies highlight their differences in relation to his father, the former president (PL), convicted of a coup d’état, believing that son 01’s less histrionic style could lead to an expansion of the electorate.
On the other side, far-right scholars warn that Flávio’s strategy is limited, because the pre-candidacy is part of an authoritarian project and his political past is linked to the Bolsonarist worldview. It is no coincidence that the left itself is already seeking to deconstruct the image touted by the senator.
Allies say, on condition of anonymity, that moderation can reduce rejection of Flávio, a “docile and balanced” person. Datafolha research this month shows Flávio and technically tied in terms of rejection — the PT member has 46% compared to 45% for Flávio. The objective, they say, is to show that Flávio is Flávio and Jair is Jair. With moderation, they are not afraid of losing the hard core of Bolsonarism, with Flávio being a legitimate Bolsonaro.
There is also an assessment that the rejections of the two pre-candidates have different natures. The PT member’s opinion would be crystallized since the beginning of his third term, while the senator would inherit his father’s disapproval, which could be reversed during the campaign. Flávio’s supporters see no contradiction between expressing a hard-line speech on public security and being attentive to social issues. After all, they say, the majority of the population agrees with the sentence “a good criminal is a dead criminal”.
Last week, Flávio said he was in favor of reducing the age of criminal responsibility to 14 years and defended chemical castration for rapists., a lunch at the headquarters of the Swiss bank UBS and another at the home of businessman Gabriel Rocha Kanner, nephew of Flávio Rocha, owner of Riachuelo.
The strategy was soon reflected on social media, with posts aimed at minority groups.
Flávio published, on March 8th, International Women’s Day, a video to defend the expansion of the number of places in daycare centers offered by the government. The previous month, he made another video, condemning racist attacks suffered by the player Vinicius Jr., from .
He also republished an illustration made with artificial intelligence, in which he receives a kiss from a boy. The image was accompanied by a saying, suggesting a supposed respect for sexual and gender freedom. “It’s confirmed! Flávio supports everyone’s freedom. Have you ever heard any homophobic speeches from Flávio? Tag an LGBT person to meet our future president.”
In 2016, when he ran for Mayor of Rio de Janeiro, he tried to implement the same tactic, presenting himself as a polite version of his father. He finished in fourth place, not even competing in the second round of that election won by , from the PRB (today the Republicans).
Political scientists claim, however, that “Bolsonarism” and “moderation” are antonyms.
“The expression ‘moderate Bolsonarism’ is a contradiction in terms. Bolsonarism exists because of radicalization, embodied by Bolsonaro”, says Odilon Caldeira Neto, professor in the Department of History at UFJF (Federal University of Juiz de Fora) and coordinator of the Observatory of the Far Right.
Neto says that the search for the center is imperative for the pre-candidacy, but the support of such rhetoric will depend on some factors, including alliances and the reception it will have among opinion makers.
“Flávio has a major limitation, because a constitutive element of his identity, as Bolsonaro’s son, is extremism”, says Mayra Goulart, professor of political science at UFRJ (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro).
Bolsonarism differs from the moderate right, she says, because it attacks institutions, defends patriarchy and uses a definition of democracy that excludes liberalism.
Director of Pesquisa Latina Consultoria, political scientist Thaís Pavez says that moderate Bolsonarism has already failed, since the governor of , (Republicans), was passed over to run for the Planalto. “It will be difficult to equate the demands of the Bolsonarist base with the image of a moderate, as Flávio will be more exposed than ever during the campaign.”
Aware of Flávio’s tactics, the government leadership changed its discourse last week. The instruction now is to deconstruct the moderate image boasted by the opponent. Adriano Gianturco, professor of political science at Ibmec and coordinator of the international relations course, disagrees with the view of other experts and says it is possible for moderate Bolsonarism to emerge.
He says it is common for political movements to appear with a radical proposal, gradually weakened by the fading of initial ideals. For Gianturco, there are several Bolsonarisms. “Bolsonaro supporters who defend dictatorship are very few. The majority who vote for Bolsonaro don’t even know if they are Bolsonaro supporters. To say that half the population is Bolsonaro supporters is a scarecrow.”
Throughout his political career, Flávio never stopped defending the worldview espoused by his father.
State deputy for Rio de Janeiro for four terms, in 2005 he awarded former PM Adriano da Nóbrega with the Tiradentes medal. Suspected of killing a car keeper, Nóbrega received the honor inside prison. He died six years ago in an exchange of gunfire with the police, in the interior of Bahia, according to the official version. He was on the run, accused of leading the largest militia in Rio de Janeiro.
A decade later, Jair Bolsonaro became a “habitué” of open TV programs. In one of them, CQC, from Band, “because they were very well-mannered.” Flávio defended his father, saying he was against political correctness. In 2016, to Colonel Brilhante Ustra, torturer of the dictatorship, in the vote on the impeachment of the former president.
Flávio has been divided between the pre-campaign and defending his father, with requests for amnesty. Two years ago, in an interview with TV Cultura’s Roda Viva program, he denied the attempted coup d’état, which took place on January 8, 2023.
“If I want to sell you land on the moon now, will you accept it? No. Why? Because it is an impossible crime. When it is an impossible crime, there is no crime. This narrative of an attempted coup on January 8th is an impossible crime. Do you really want to convince me that someone who committed the acts of vandalism would sit in the chair of President of the Republic, would start giving orders and everyone would comply?”
Last year, before being announced as Bolsonaro’s political heir, he told Sheet that the right-wing candidate should commit to pardoning the former president, using force, if necessary, to stop any reaction from the (Federal Supreme Court). At the time, he denied having used a threatening tone.
“I’m doing a scenario analysis. Bolsonaro supports someone, that candidate gets elected, gives a pardon or works with Congress to approve the amnesty, in three months this is achieved, then the Supreme Court comes and says: it’s unconstitutional, everyone goes back to jail. That’s not enough.”
“This is a coup speech,” says Gabriela Zancaner, professor of constitutional law at PUC-SP. “There is a separation of powers in our Constitution and it is not up to the Executive to interfere in matters of the Judiciary.”
