“You come to me with a sword and with a spear and with a javelin, but I come to you in the name of Yahweh of hosts, the God of the battle lines of Israel, whom you have defied in derision.”
Book of Samuel
Look where, the war of Iran and the Persian Gulf ongoing – it seems like a more complete definition – updates the favorite biblical story of Israelis: that of the Philistine giant Goliath defeated by the Israelite shepherd Davidwho shoots him with his slingshot. David vs. Goliath. That is: the small and weak opponent faces a much larger and more powerful opponent.
Trump y Netanyahu -or Netanyahu and Trump- have wanted, in the retelling of that story, the place of the shepherd of Bethlehem, future king of Israel, to be occupied by Iranwhile that of the Philistine giant is represented by the alliance of USA and Israel.
David’s sling has been transmuted. It is the control of Strait of Hormuzon the shores of Iranby the government of Tehran. Not only because the 20% of the world’s oil and gasbut also because from there comes the 30% of fertilizers that are consumed in the world, essential for agricultural production.
The ambassador Dennis Rossmember of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy (Middle East Policy Institute), and former advisor to five US administrations – the last in the National Security Council during the presidency of Barack Obama-he maintained this week, in a special study by the bank Goldman Sachsthat the key issue to determine what is going to happen is the control of the Strait of Hormuz.
“Trump probably would have already declared victory and ended the war if it hadn’t been for Iran controls transit through the Strait of Hormuzwhich has the potential to cause considerable damage to the global economy. As long as that blockade is not broken, USA cannot end the war unilaterally.”
Ross believes that mediation – possibly facilitated by the Russian president Vladimir Putin- It is the quickest way to end the war if USA fails to regain control of the strait.
“But the conditions do not exist to begin that mediation at this time,” he says.
In the analysis of Goldman Sachs reflections of the vice admiral are included Kevin Doneganformer commander of the US Navy Fifth Fleet.
“The convoys could never restore the flows of oil At normal levels, only 20% of flows could be restored. For oil flows to return to pre-conflict levels, it would require Iran to stop harassing the ships, which implies incentives and pressure from everyone. Restoring flows is not flipping a switch, as regaining confidence that traffic will be safe will take time,” he explains.
However, there is another circumstance that must be included in the analysis of the geopolitical-economic risk that have triggered Trump y Netanyahu a month and a day ago when he launched the attack, perhaps encouraged by the possibility of assassinating the ayatollah Ali Jameneian objective achieved that, however, has been far – as Netanyahu sold, and Trump bought – from provoking the popular uprising of the Iranians and the subsequent regime change.
And that other factor is the participation of the Yemen Houthis in this war, allies of Iranwho, precisely, this Saturday, March 28, have entered into combat with the sending of a missile to Israelan action that was frequent during the Gaza war. Their entry into this war, as reported, is a response to Israel both for its virtual occupation of Lebanon as for the bombings of Iran.
Trump declared war on the Houthis in 2025, but gave up continuing it.
Now Iran contemplates the possibility of adding to its control of the Strait of Hormuz the blocking of Bab el-Mandeb Strait: channels the 10% of oil and gas that feeds global demand. A blockade that would be in charge of the Houthis.
Bab el-Mandeb It is located at the south entrance to the Red Sea and it is a 29 kilometer passage between Yemenon one side, and Djibouti of Eritreaon the other. The containers between Asia and Europe. Los tanker boats They sail at reduced speed, at the mercy of the coastal platform of missiles, drones and attacks from small boats.
The ships that leave the Persian Gulf they go out for him Strait of Hormuzthey cross the Arabian seathey enter the Golfo de Aden and pass through Bab el-Mandeb to reach the Red Seago out towards the Suez Canal and head towards Europe and other markets.
The dangers of an aggravation are such that Trump has hesitated twice after giving a forty-eight hour ultimatum with the threat of bombing all Iran’s energy infrastructure on Saturday the 21st; then he gave another five days of deadline, an extension based on the invention of a non-existent negotiation with Iran, and finally, with the extension of the ultimatum for another 10 days, from last Thursday, March 26.
Trump is looking for a way out, it seems evident.
But is there this way out, at the point we are at, without recognizing that a war has started that cannot end?
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