The secretary states that the “effective target”, without deductions, remains negative and impacts on debt
The Secretary of the National Treasury, , said this Monday (March 30, 2026) that Brazil’s public debt “remains sustainable” in all scenarios outlined by the economic team. He said that the “effective goal” of the primary result – which includes spending deductions in law – puts pressure on debt, but the government has been “transparent” in the data.
“At the moment, all the scenarios that we outline the debt remains sustainable and tends to stabilize in a few years at a slightly higher level. The latest report is [com a projeção de] 84% do PIB”said the secretary when presenting the fiscal data this Monday (30.mar.2026).
The federal government recorded a deficit in February, the lowest negative balance for the month since 2022. In the last 1 year, the deficit was R$60.4 billion.
DBGG (Gross General Government Debt) totaled 78.8% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in January. In values, it corresponds to R$10.1 trillion. Debt 7.1 percentage points in the government (PT).
The National Treasury said in July 2025 that the debt owes 84% of GDP in 2028 before stabilizing. Debt is impacted both by the balance between income and expenses and by spending on interest on the debt. The higher the rates, the more pressure on the debt-to-GDP ratio.
The federal government has respected compliance with fiscal targets, according to Leal. In 2026, the objective is to have a surplus of R$34.3 billion this year. The economic team believes that the positive balance will be lower, at R$3.5 billion in 2026, or R$30.8 billion lower than the objective approved by law. The legislation allows a balance of 0% of GDP, or equality between revenues and expenses.
Without the deductions provided for by law, such as expenses with court orders, strategic projects in national defense and temporary education and health projects, the loss would be R$59.8 billion this year.
Leal declared that the government has been “very transparent about what will be delivered and what is being left out”. He further said that the goal “effective” still remains negative, which impacts debt management.
The secretary said that the Central Bank’s contractionary monetary policy, with the Selic at 14.75% per year, also contributes to the cost of paying interest on the debt. Nominal spending on the figure broke a record in the 12 months up to February, .
The secretary declared that, even with the high interest rates in 2025, the variation in debt from 2025 to 2026 was “marginally smaller” than was expected.
The war in the Middle East should impact the reduction in interest rates, which puts more pressure on the debt. The Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) said the cuts should be smaller than previously predicted. The president of the Central Bank, Gabriel Galípolo, declared that it is necessary the effects of conflicts on the Brazilian economy.
For the Treasury Secretary, even with a shorter cycle of cuts, there are “ways to compensate”. He stated that the federal government will have primary results “best”which will impact the long-term interest rate trajectory.
DIESEL SUBSVENTIONS
Leal said that if the diesel proposal is not accepted by the States, the Treasury will hold further discussions on possible solutions “always assuming balance and fiscal responsibility”.
The entities will give a response this Monday (March 30, 2026) about the proposal presented by the federal government. The idea is to build an arrangement with the States to enable a subsidy for imported diesel and, thus, reduce the impact of the international increase in the fuel chain on domestic prices.
The plan establishes a subsidy of R$1.20 per liter. The estimated impact is R$1.5 billion for the Union and R$1.5 billion for the States.
The Treasury Secretary said that the federal government will not cover the full impact of the subsidy on ICMS (Tax on the Circulation of Goods and Services).
“There will definitely be some balance. If, in fact, this happens [a rejeição da proposta]there will be a balance from another source. Any type of discussion along these lines will always be based on the assumption of sustainable fiscal balance”Leal said.
