Governor Jorginho Mello (PL) appears as the main name in the dispute for the government of Santa Catarina, according to a survey by AtlasIntel released this Wednesday (1st). The current head of the Executive leads in the first round scenarios tested and also has an advantage in the second round projections.
In the first simulation, Jorginho has 49.4% of voting intentions, more than double that recorded by João Rodrigues (PSD), who appears with 21.4%. Gelson Merisio (PSB) has 13.8%, followed by Marcelo Brigadeiro (5.7%) and Marcos Vieira (1.6%). Blanks and nulls account for 5.2%, while 3% were unable to answer.
In an alternative scenario, with the presence of Décio Lima (PT), the governor maintains the leadership level, with 49.9%. João Rodrigues appears with 20.9%, while Décio registers 19.6%. The other candidates maintain residual participation.
Advantage increases in the second round
Second round simulations indicate a consistent advantage for Jorginho Mello. Against Gelson Merisio, he reaches 60.7% of voting intentions, compared to 22.8% for his opponent. In a possible dispute with Décio Lima, the governor scores 59.1%, while the PT member appears with 26.8%.
In the confrontation with João Rodrigues, the difference is smaller, but still in favor of the current governor: 53.1% against 30.3%. Only in a scenario without Jorginho’s presence, João Rodrigues leads, with 52.6% compared to 17.6% for Merisio.
The survey interviewed 1,280 voters in Santa Catarina between March 25 and 30, 2026. The margin of error is three percentage points, with a confidence level of 95%. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under numbers BR-01666/2026 and SC-05257/2026 and was financed with the company’s own resources.
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