This Saturday ended a crucial stage. It was the end of the deadline for the incompatibility of public positions, party affiliation and change of electoral domicile for those who intend to run for elective office this year.
There are 17 ministers from the Lula government and 11 governors who left their posts focusing on the electoral dispute. Among them is the former governor of Goiás, a classic character in Brazilian politics. He participated in all of them, having already run for President, the Government of Goiás, the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. He is also among the governors with the greatest personal wealth in the country.
This history helps to understand the choice of Caiado, to the detriment of , as the party’s pre-candidate for President.
On the one hand, the PSD’s regional leaders do not want to commit the resources of the electoral fund and the party fund to a candidacy with no real chance of victory, prioritizing disputes for the national Legislature and state Executives.
The campaign spending limit for presidential candidates in 2026 will be close to R$105 million, which corresponds to around 25% of the R$420 million electoral fund to which the PSD is entitled.
On the other hand, the chosen name needs to coexist with the party’s internal diversity and accept, without causing problems, that many, if not all, of the party’s candidates for state governments will not support it. Since Caiado’s pre-candidacy became official, among PSD governors only ., from Paraná, declared support for him. And it is worth highlighting that Ratinho will not run for any elected office in 2026 and speaks openly on a double platform in the state.
It is at this point that Leite seems to concentrate his weakness. His problem is less electoral than political: the difficulty of political articulation and of presenting himself as a reliable party leader among his supporters. In an environment structured by cooperation, the reputation of being a good manager is not enough. The reputation for fulfilling agreements and accepting the party’s decisions is not secondary, it is part of the very viability of a candidacy.
Leite reissues an already well-known script in 2026. In 2022, still in , he contested internal elections with , lost and had difficulty leaving the dispute, even asking that Doria give him space in the party’s national insertions. Last week, he released a video criticizing Caiado’s choice of the PSD.
The situation of the state succession between the two also deserves note: Daniel Vilela (MDB), Caiado’s deputy and current governor, appears as the favorite for the Government of Goiás. Gracinha Caiado, wife of Ronaldo Caiado, is the favorite to occupy one of the two Senate seats in dispute. In Rio Grande do Sul, if the current scenario continues, Gabriel Souza (MDB), Leite’s deputy and candidate supported by him, will not reach the second round.
I still doubt that Caiado’s candidacy will actually reach the polls. But, within the PSD, his choice reveals a pragmatic decision: preserving resources for state disputes and avoiding a candidate whose capacity for cooperation does not find support among the party’s cadres.
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