20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply and 13% of global fertilizer trade. These are the rates of the two critical groups of products passing through , which have been blocked for a month by the Iranian army, in retaliation for the attack launched by Washington and Tel Aviv against Tehran.
The unimpeded movement of which is identified with agricultural production and by extension the livelihood of billions of people. Food experts believe that if the Middle East crisis is not defused, an unprecedented global food crisis should be considered a certainty as the negative effects come to work cumulatively in the food crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The interview
The director of the UN Food Security Agency (WFP), Jean-Martin Bauer, spoke to Vima about the dangers of a new food crisis and its impact on daily food costs.
Analysts warn that a prolonged blockade of the Straits of Hormuz could trigger a global food security crisis. Do you share this view?
There has already been a profoundly worrying effect on global food security, and the outlook for the rest of 2026 is even more worrying. The blockade of the Straits of Hormuz has limited the supply of fuel and fertilizers, products essential for agriculture. Also, shipping companies have become reluctant to move through the Red Sea trade route, creating further disruptions in the supply chain for fuel and other necessities. This means that farming will likely become more expensive and the cost of locally grown food will increase.
The developments will hit them and especially Asia, which are heavily dependent on imports, incredibly hard. For example, in Somalia, which is plagued by severe drought, the price of some basic products has increased by at least 20% since the beginning of the conflict, and increases in food prices are likely to continue in the coming months. Families already on the brink of survival will have to find new ways to cope. If the crisis continues into June and the price of oil remains above $100, our analysis shows that an additional 45 million people could be pushed into the brink of acute hunger, bringing global hunger levels to 363 million people – an unprecedented number.
How long does it take to restore normalcy if the war ends in the next few weeks?
This is not a crisis that will be resolved overnight, even if the conflict ends tomorrow. After the supply chain disruptions during the Covid-19 pandemic and the onset of , it took months for supply chains to get back up and running, so we’re likely to see the same pattern here. Beyond that, today’s disruptions will have long-term effects. Because a significant amount of fertilizers is transported through these routes and the disturbance comes as the sowing season begins. This will have long-term effects, we are likely to see lower crop yields later in the year, which will further increase food prices.
How vulnerable is a country with the energy profile of Greece, in terms of the daily table?
Countries that depend on imports, especially imports coming from or passing through the Persian Gulf, will be most affected by this crisis. We know from experience that there is often a lag in food price increases, they can take months to appear and often take even longer to subside. What really worries us is the millions of people who were already struggling to put food on the table are extremely vulnerable and this could push them into entrenched food insecurity as their resources are depleted. Greece is not an exception to the rule, although it is not exposed to such extreme situations as other regions of the planet.
Governments are implementing a series of measures to stop the rise in food prices. How effective do you consider these measures?
What we see are short-term tools to deal with the growing crisis, but tools that are costly and difficult to sustain in the long term. The effectiveness of these actions will depend on how long supply routes remain in a state of disruption – as they are the root cause of this crisis. In addition, many of the governments WFP works with already have high levels of debt and social services in these countries are severely lacking. People struggling to cope with this new shock need support to cope, but the countries where people need it most simply cannot provide the support they need. We fear that the most vulnerable people will be left without any help in food insecurity.
