The country may experience a “campaign climate” of six months if the (Federal Supreme Court) determines the holding of a buffer governor, who will command the state until the end of 2026 after the impeachment of ().
The scenario is drawn based on the deadlines defined in , in 2018, after , in a situation similar to that in Rio de Janeiro. If the same calendar is maintained, the buffer governor can be certified in the same week in which he will be chosen, at a convention, as a candidate for re-election.
Whether the election will be direct or indirect, in this case, defined by state deputies. Four ministers have already positioned themselves in favor of the choice by popular vote.
The former mayor of Rio de Janeiro () is a pre-candidate for the October election and declared that he will run for the buffer mandate if it is a direct vote. State deputy Douglas Ruas (PL) is seeking the position in any scenario, as he intends to run in October.
The (Superior Electoral Court) has reserved for this year two dates before October for supplementary dates, carried out in the event of the chief executive’s impeachment: May 17th and June 21st. Politicians and lawyers work, if the STF so decides, with the election taking place on the last date, due to the deadlines in the electoral calendar.
In this way, maintaining the intervals adopted by the TRE (Regional Electoral Court) of Tocantins in 2018, the party conventions to define candidates for the buffer mandate would begin on April 27, 55 days before the election.
The dispute could last until July 12, the likely date for the second round. Following the TRE-TO deadlines, the diplomaization would take place by July 27th.
However, days before, on July 20, the period for party conventions to choose candidates for the October election is scheduled to begin. They can occur until August 5th.
Thus, the candidate who wins the dispute for the buffer mandate will be able, in the same week, to take office and be nominated as a candidate for re-election. The new dispute, now for four years at the Guanabara Palace, could last until October 25th, the date of the second round of the general elections.
Since 2007, two supplementary elections for governor have been held: in 2017, in Amazonas, and in 2018, in Tocantins. The TREs in both states followed similar calendars, with a significant difference only in the beginning of radio and TV advertising.
Tocantins faced a tight schedule, a scenario similar to that of Rio de Janeiro. Miranda was revoked by the TSE on March 22, 2018. After 13 days, TRE-TO published its calendar for the supplementary elections, the first round of which took place on June 3.
Castro was impeached on March 23 of this year, but without a direct election.
If the STF decides on a direct election, TRE-RJ has 14 days to issue a resolution, maintaining the 60-day electoral calendar for supplementary elections as done by TRE-TO. The Rio de Janeiro court should not comment on its plans until there is a definition by the Supreme Court.
The main difference is that Tocantins has an electorate of 1.2 million people, while Rio has 13 million, the third largest in the country. Logistical difficulties have been highlighted as an obstacle to holding up to four votes within a four-month interval.
The holding of a direct election is the subject of a complaint filed with the STF by the PSD-RJ, from Paes. The party claims that Castro’s resignation should be disregarded because it occurred on the eve of the trial in which he was revoked at the TSE.
While the double vacancy of the positions of governor and deputy due to resignation leads the succession decision to an indirect election, in the case of impeachment, the legislation provides for a direct election, if it takes place before six months of the end of the term.
For the PSDB, Castro’s resignation was a maneuver to take the choice of his immediate successor to the Legislative Assembly, where he has a consolidated majority.
The thesis was also presented in the minister’s vote during a virtual trial on the state law that deals with the rules for indirect elections in the case of double vacancies. With arguments similar to those listed by the PSD-RJ in the complaint, the judge indicated that, in the current case, the successor should be chosen by popular vote.
Moraes was accompanied by ministers Gilmar Mendes and Flávio Dino. The minister came to align with the understanding. However, he withdrew his vote shortly after he was selected as rapporteur for the complaint presented by the PSD-RJ. At the same time, the action on the rules of indirect elections and requested that the two processes be judged together in the physical plenary of the STF.
The disintegration of Rio de Janeiro’s line of succession began in May 2025, when Castro convinced his then deputy, Thiago Pampolha, to resign to take up a seat at the TCE (State Audit Court).
The objective was to pave the way for Rodrigo Bacellar (União Brasil) to occupy the government at the moment Castro resigned to run for the Senate. The deputy would be chosen by Alerj, where he had broad support, in an indirect election as a “buffer governor” to run for re-election in October.
The plan fell apart when Bacellar was arrested and removed from office by order of Moraes, on suspicion of leaking information about the operation, accused of being linked to Comando Vermelho. He denies it.
Bacellar was replaced by Guilherme Delaroli (PL) in command of the Assembly. As he is interim, he cannot take over the state government in the event of vacancy in the positions of governor and deputy.
Currently, the state is under the command of judge Ricardo Couto, president of the Court of Justice, last in the line of succession. Zanin determined, in an injunction, that he remain in office until a buffer governor is chosen. The topic will also be discussed next Wednesday.
