The , the and a group of regional mediators are in intensive negotiations to reach a 45-day temporary ceasefire, which could form the basis for a permanent end to the . According to sources in the US, Israel and the wider region with knowledge of the talks, this is a last-ditch diplomatic effort, as the chances of reaching even a limited agreement within the next 48 hours remain slim.
As Axios reports, any failure could lead to a dramatic escalation of the conflict. Scenarios under consideration include massive strikes on Iranian political infrastructure, as well as retaliation against energy and water facilities in Gulf countries.
The deadline of 10 days
The original 10-day deadline the US president had set for Iran was set to expire on Monday night. However, on Sunday he decided to extend it by 20 hours, moving the ultimatum to Tuesday at 8 pm. He stated that the US is “in deep negotiations” with Iran and left open the possibility of an agreement, warning at the same time.
At the same time, an operational plan has already been drawn up for an extensive US-Israeli military operation against Iran’s energy infrastructure, which underlines the criticality of the timing. The extension of the deadline is interpreted as an attempt to give diplomacy one last chance.
And Turkey in the negotiations
The talks are being conducted through mediators from Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey, but also through direct communication between officials of the two sides. Despite the multiple proposals submitted by the American side in recent days, Tehran has so far not accepted any of them.
The framework under discussion involves a two-phase agreement. The first involves the implementation of a 45-day ceasefire, during which a negotiated end to the conflict will be sought. If necessary, the temporary truce could be extended. The second phase will concern the final peace agreement.
Central to the negotiations are the full reopening of the Straits of Hormuz and the management of Iran’s highly enriched uranium, either through removal from the country or dilution. However, mediators believe that such commitments can only be achieved in the context of a comprehensive and final agreement.
Intermediate measures
In the meantime, interim confidence-building measures are being considered. Iran appears reluctant to give up its key bargaining chips for a time-limited truce, while seeking clear guarantees that an eventual ceasefire will not prove temporary. Iranian officials have indicated that they do not want a situation similar to those in Gaza or Lebanon, where ceasefires are proving fragile and irreversible.
For their part, mediators are trying to craft a framework of mutual guarantees, including possible moves by the US that could satisfy key Iranian demands.
At the same time, concerns are growing about the consequences of a possible military escalation. Sources say that a possible Iranian response to attacks on energy infrastructure could seriously damage oil and water facilities in Gulf countries.
Mediators warn that there is no time left for further delays and that the next 48 hours are the last chance. Publicly, however, the Iranian side continues to take a tough stance, rejecting concessions, while the country’s military officials say the situation in the Straits of Hormuz is not going to return to pre-war conditions, particularly as far as the US and Israel are concerned.
