Portugal could run out of jet fuel reserves in 4 months. In this scenario, you will not stop “all at once”. There are already restrictions in Italy.
The war in the Middle East is condition the trade of fuel on a global scale – something that also affects aviation.
A Air BP Italia, subsidiary of BP, announced this weekend restrictions on refueling planes at four Italian airports: Bologna, Milan Linate, Treviso and Venice Marco Polo. They will remain in force, in principle, until Thursday.
Milan Linate airport has regular flights to Lisbon and Porto; Bologna and Venice Marco Polo have connections to Lisbon and Treviso has flights to Porto.
And the planes in Portugal may also suffer consequences.
Eurostat data warns: Portugal could run out of aviation kerosene reserves [jet fuel] in four months. That is, in August; in the middle of summer, at a peak in travel.
Argus, cited in , even indicates that – with the current scenario – Portugal will be the first country in the European Union to run out of jet fuel reserves, before Hungary, Denmark, Italy or Germany.
For the entire spring, aviation kerosene stocks are still “holding”. The problem is the imports of aviation kerosene in May, that come from Persian Gulf.
O Strait of Hormuzif restrictions remain at this time, they will put aviation kerosene stocks at risk, which could quickly decrease in Portugal.
And then?
If Portuguese airports run out of fuel, most likely they won’t “stop all at once” – would enter a contingency management in phases. An airport without fuel does not close immediately.
The first step would be limit or suspend aircraft refueling. In fact, it has already happened at Humberto Delgado Airport; at the time, in 2017, in a specific situation, reported that there were delays and cancellations, because there was no longer any capacity to park planes. 473 flights were affected: 12 changed route, 98 were canceled and 363 flights were delayed. More than 41 thousand passengers will have been affected.
Airports would also issue notices immediate operational needs for air navigation and companies.
Some flights would have priority in relation to others: medical, state, military flights, or aircraft that require fuel for operational safety reasons.
Without enough fuel, the airport and airlines can cancel or reschedule flights to prevent aircraft from being grounded in a chain.
Again based on the 2017 episode, these would be diverted flights to other airports with supply capacity.
Airports could ask airlines to do “refuelling”: add more fuel than you need. This is to reduce dependence on the affected airport.
And they would be activated emergency planswith coordination between airport, supplier and authorities.
