The senator appears with 45.8% of voting intentions, against 45.5% for the president, within the margin of error of 2.5 percentage points
The Means/Idea research released this Wednesday (8) indicates a technical tie between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in a possible second round scenario of the 2026 presidential election.
The senator appears with 45,8% of voting intentions, against 45,5% of the president, within the margin of error of 2.5 percentage points. Nulls amount to 6.6%, while 2.1% of respondents were unable to answer.
In the first round, Lula leads with 40.4%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro, with 37%. Next come Ronaldo Caiado (6.5%), Renan Santos (3%) and Romeu Zema (3%). Aldo Rebelo adds 0.6%, while 1% declares a blank vote, null or for no one, and 8.5% say they don’t know.
The survey also indicates that the electorate follows divided on the definition of the vote: 48,6% claim to already have a decision madewhile 51,4% they say they still can change their choice until the election.
The survey also assessed voters’ perception of Lula’s government. According to the survey, 10,7% classify management as “excellent” e 21.5% as “good”while 19% consider the government “regular”.
Negative reviews add up to a significant portion: 15% point out the administration as “roomy” e 31.4% as “very bad”.
Methodology
The survey was carried out between April 3 and 7, 2026, with 1,500 telephone interviews. The margin of error is 2.5 percentage points, with a confidence level of 95%. The electoral survey, Meio/Ideia, is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under protocol BR-00605/2026.
