Donald Trump had demanded the “unconditional surrender” of Iran as a condition for end the war, but it has ended up clinging to a Pakistani proposal based on Tehran’s demands to halt hostilities for two weeks. He cease-fire will allow temporarily reopening the Strait of Hormuz while the definitive end to the war is being negotiated, but there is little more comfort for the United States interestswho leaves this with his decimated reputation y internationally isolated. None of that has stopped Trump from proclaiming a “total and complete victory.” But the truth is that neither the US nor Israel have fulfilled none of the objectives that were marked in a war that has created more problems than it has solved. Along the way they leave a iranian regime largely intact and geopolitically strengthened, as well as a world economy staggering and injured.
Trump found the exit ramp I was looking for less than two hours before his ultimatum to launch a massive attack on Iranian infrastructure was met. “An entire civilization will die tonight,” he had said with genocidal pretensions. It came through the mediation of Islamabad and the Republican sold his agreement as if it were a gesture of deference towards Pakistani leaders, “who asked me to stop the destructive force that was going to fall on Iran tonight,” he wrote in Thruth Social. As he himself acknowledged, the proposal is based on 10 points made by the Supreme Security Council of Iranone of the pillars of the regime. A document that, in Trump’s words, will serve as a “viable basis for negotiating.”
What seemed until then a lesser evil to stop the brutal guerra regional, that has claimed the lives of more than 5,000 people in a dozen countriesbecame a debacle for many in Washington. “Huge strategic defeat for the USthe largest since Vietnam. It shows the emergence of Iran as the fourth center of world power,” wrote the prestigious political scientist at the University of Chicago, Robert A. Pape, who specializes in international relations, insupervision” of the Strait of Hormuz in the hands of Iran, when freedom of navigation prevailed there before the war. But it also demands withdrawal of American troops from its bases in the region; demands lifting of all sanctions on Tehran and even contemplates the payment of reparations for damages suffered during the attack. That does not mean that such a shopping list will be implemented, but it does mean that it will theoretically be used as a starting point for negotiation.
Far from the set objectives
Aside from this surprising concession, experts agree that both the US and Israel have remained far from your goalsno matter how much the White House insists otherwise. There has not been regime change in Tehran, which maintains firm control of the country despite the change of faces in its leadership. Nor has it been destroyed ballistic missile program or has the support of the ayatollahs to their allied militias in the region. Quite the contrary, with its asymmetric war Iran has shown that it can put both its Arab neighbors in the Gulf and the world economy in check. And he was supposed to be an outcast on the brink of collapse.
The icing on the cake, the one that worries the world the most, has not even fallen. The US Secretary of War, Pete Hegsethurged Iran this Wednesday to hand over its more than 400 kilos of uranium enriched to 60% —a grade close to what would be needed to make nuclear bombs—but that uranium is still theoretically buried under a facility in Isfahan bombed in the war of 2025.
In Israel, the office of Benjamin Netanyahu stated that “Iran has ceased to represent a nuclear, missile and terrorist threat”. But outside the government bubble, the mood is gloomy. “This is one of the biggest political disasters in our history,” he said. Yair Lapid, one of the opposition leaders. “What exactly has this war been for?” asked Danny Citrinowicz, a prestigious analyst and former Israeli military intelligence officer. “Tactical successes and operational achievements are almost completely useless if they do not provide a coherent result in strategic terms”. At the same time, the reputation of the Jewish State in the United States has been seriously damaged, as many Americans accuse Israel of having dragged Trump into a war that was not theirs.
The drama of the Iranian people
All these elements contribute enormous fragility to the ceasefire, violated on several occasions during the day this Wednesday by both parties. However, the main problem seems to be Israel’s refusal to stop its war in Lebanon, where today it launched the most massive bombardment since the beginning of this latest conflict. The mediator, Pakistanmaintains that Lebanon is part of the agreement, but Trump has denied this, after describing how “a separate skirmish” the ongoing destruction of the small Levantine country. Iran has threatened to close the strait again if Lebanon is not saved from burning and, to complicate matters, Netanyahu said late in the day that The truce is not the end of the war. “There are still objectives to achieve,” said the Israeli prime minister.
In the absence of knowing if the ceasefire will be consolidated, the other major victim along with the Lebanese people of this illegal and aimless war it is the people it is the Iranian people. Their masses dissatisfied with the ayatollahs were promised their releasebut instead Trump and Netanyahu have left them a more radical and emboldened regime, as well as a more impoverished country after 40 days of bombings against universities, hospitals, infrastructure and the main pillars of the Iranian economy. A complete disaster for their aspirations for freedom.
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