The parliamentary elections in Hungary, scheduled for this Sunday (12), represent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s biggest political challenge since the conservative Hungarian Civic Union (Fidesz) party came to power in 2010. The fledgling Respect and Freedom Party (Tisza), led by former ally Péter Magyar, has been leading independent polls of voting intentions since last year and has expanded its lead in recent surveys.
If the projections that Tisza will win around two-thirds of the votes come to fruition, the “illiberal democracy” project that Orbán has been building over the last 16 years may have its days numbered.
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This model combines a high degree of social discipline with the reduction of levels of public dissent, through measures that restrict or even eliminate controls over the Executive powers and the media, shrinking the opposition’s space in the public debate. In the economy, it is a management marked by strong state interference and blockages to European Union determinations.
Orbán also helped redesign Hungary’s electoral laws so that Fidesz was able to maintain its hegemony in previous cycles. The number of seats in Parliament was reduced from 386 to 199, and a hybrid structure was adopted, with 106 deputies chosen from single-member districts and 93 through a national proportional system.
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As a result, whoever wins the election — so far, Fidesz itself — achieves a large majority even in more balanced disputes. The spell, however, could turn against the sorcerer in 2026. Faced with allegations of corruption, dissatisfaction with economic results and a moral crisis caused by the cover-up of a case of pedophilia in an orphanage, the party in power saw its approval collapse in just over two years.
The reforming aura that Orbán himself boasted in 2010 is now occupied by Péter Magyar who, although a center-right politician, opposes the current prime minister’s marked euroskepticism.
The latest projections show that Tisza could reach up to two thirds of the votes, electing 138 to 143 deputies. Fidesz would have between 49 and 55 seats, and the far-right Movement for the Fatherland (Mi Hazánk) party would only have a small bench in Parliament.
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Furthermore, Tisza is the most popular party among young Hungarians: three quarters of voters under 30 intend to vote for the party, as do 63% of those aged between 30 and 40. Support for Fidesz in these two age groups is just 10% and 17% respectively.
Foreign policy also came into play in the election. Donald Trump sent his vice, JD Vance, this week to reinforce support for the current prime minister. A friend of Vladimir Putin, Orbán spread posters across the country that associate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky both with his direct opponent, Péter Magyar, and with Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission.
