O mercado is recalculating the inflation route after the IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index) March present most pressed data than expected by analysts.
Consensus among economic agents is that .
“The result must result in new round of inflation projection revisions at the same time,” highlights Marcela Kawauti, chief economist at Lifetime Gestora de Recursos, highlighting what the data must do.
Warren Investimentos reinforces the point of view by indicating that the three-month moving average of the cores monitored by the BC rose from 4.29% to 4.65%.
“In summary, March’s IPCA was worse than we expectedwith a diversion concentrated in foods more sensitive to the effects of war. In underlying services, but with the help of vehicle services”, says a note from the house, which updated its projections for the 2026 IPCA to around 4.8%.
Pressured inflation
The variation in consumer prices measured by the IPCA registered , accelerating compared to 0.7% in January and market expectations that were around 0.77%. Inflation accumulated over 12 months rose from 3.81% in February to 4.14%.
“In qualitative terms, the worsening was more pronounced than expected. This result adds an upward bias to our trajectory of monitoring the IPCA throughout the year, as well as to our projection for the end of the year”, points out Santander in a report.
At high commodities caused by the war in the Middle East is observed in the Transport group, which increased 1.64% in the month. .
Furthermore, the pressure on food prices caught the attention of analysts.
“The main upward surprise for our forecast came from the prices of food at home, especially milk, and the group of industrialized goods”, says XP, reinforcing that the upward surprise should lead to a revision of the 4.8% IPCA projection for 2026 upwards.
The food group rose 1.6% compared to the previous month. Citi’s projection, for example, was 1.3%. The bank’s analysts also highlight how the services sector grew by 0.5%, slightly above expectations.
“Considering all factors, most of the positive IPCA inflation surprise was due to the greater volatility of goods, which could reverse in the coming months. However, if oil prices remain at current levels globally, the pressure on prices through the transport component will be upward”, ponders Citi, which also considers an increase in its forecasts.
Looking at the whole picture, Santander assesses that “the most worrying thing was the widespread nature of the positive surprises across all items. This widespread pressure translated into a clear deterioration in the underlying inflation dynamics, with key metrics rising in all markets.”
In this way, the ASA – which revised the IPCA projection for 2026 from 4.6% to 5% – highlights a vector of concern that is independent of geopolitics.
“The services cores continue to resist at a high level. While the inflation of industrialized goods, despite the appreciation of the real, accelerated again in the three-month moving average. The combination of an external cost shock with an internal dynamics of services still under pressure is the least favorable scenario for the convergence of inflation to the target”, ponders the house’s economist Leonardo Costa.
In short, at a high level and continue to constitute a challenge for the Central Bank, points out Daycoval.
“In general terms, this result above expectations […] reinforces the upward bias for our inflation projection, currently at 4.2% at the end of this year. Furthermore, this picture as a whole ends up corroborating our expectation of continued interest rate cuts of 0.25 points at the next meeting”, concludes the bank.
