The president () is currently facing the tightest 1st round scenario of all the elections in which he emerged victorious. Data from Datafolha surveys, carried out around six months before the election, in the years 2002, 2006 and 2022, show that the PT member’s difference in relation to his main opponent has never been so narrow.
In 2002, the first time Lula was elected president of the Republic, the politician had, on April 9, a difference of ten percentage points from second place, the toucan José Serra.
In the following election, when he was re-elected, the PT member was, according to a June survey, 17 points ahead of Geraldo Alckmin, then his main opponent for the PSDB.
When he returned to run in 2022, in a scenario already marked by polarization with Bolsonarism, the PT member had 48% of voting intentions in May of that year, compared to 27% of .
shows the politician with 39% of voting intentions in the first round, followed by the senator (-RJ), with 35%. The margin of error is plus or minus two points.
“These data are very symbolic because they show a consistent reduction in the leadership margin compared to previous cycles”, analyzes political scientist Elias Tavares.
According to him, the scenario is a reflection of a more divided electorate and a more competitive environment for the PT member, who was unable to establish big brands or programs that would reconnect him with the population, such as “Fome Zero”, to combat food insecurity, in the early 2000s.
“In 2002, Lula was riding a wave of change, with a new speech and high expectations. In 2006, even with the wear and tear of the , he still had a relatively comfortable leadership. In 2022, despite the polarization, he managed to maintain a consistent advantage, largely because there was a high rejection of Jair Bolsonaro, and Lula knew how to occupy this space as the main counterpoint to a government that was facing relevant dissatisfaction at that time”, analyzes Tavares.
According to the expert, the loss of time off forces the pre-candidate, worn out by his long years in politics, to “dispute the vote all the time, with no room for error.”
The fact that the opposition is starting out more consolidated than opponents from previous years also weighs on the calculation, a reflection of a “more immediate polarization and with less room for growth” for Lula, assesses Tavares.
Bruno Bolognesi, political scientist and professor at UFPR (Federal University of Paraná), also places part of the justification behind polarization that creates a tighter scenario for the PT member, which for the expert makes the election unpredictable.
In this context, he states, the exploitation of useful votes gains weight, used in the second round by voters more to prevent the opponent from winning the election than to support a candidate. “It’s an election in which the useful vote must prevail again, which is common in polarized countries like Brazil and.”
. According to the latest Datafolha, the PT member has a 48% rejection rate, against 46% for Flávio. The former governors (Novo), of Minas Gerais, and (), of Goiás, have 17% and 16% respectively, but are less known.
In 2022, also marked by the polarization between Lula and Bolsonarism, the PT member had lower rejection, from 33% to 40%, compared to a variation of 51% to 55% for Jair Bolsonaro (PL), according to Datafolha surveys from May to October of that year.
For Luis Gustavo Teixeira, doctor in political science and professor at Unipampa (Federal University of Pampa), the tighter scenario for Lula reflects a government marked by wear and tear and dehydration, in addition to the “difficulty in articulating with a broader social and electoral base, beyond the borders of PTism.”
Still, there is room for movement in his favor throughout the electoral race, assesses Teixeira, especially given Flávio Bolsonaro’s lack of experience in a position in the Executive. “Facing an electoral process is not easy, just remember, for example, Flávio’s fainting in the electoral debate for the mayor of Rio de Janeiro”, says Teixeira, for whom the scrutiny related to .
Flávio fainted during a debate broadcast live on TV, in 2016, when he ran for Mayor of Rio. The video was recovered on social media since the politician announced that he was a pre-candidate for President.
It is also necessary to consider, when comparing the elections analyzed, the high number of blank votes and undecided votes, a portion that could be decisive in defining the direction of the elections, assesses Teixeira.
For Antonio Lavareda, political scientist and sociologist at Ipespe (Institute for Social, Political and Economic Research), the result of the most recent survey points to a scenario in which Lula could be overtaken “if the economy worsens and the tide of scandals gains greater proportions”.
Lavareda assesses that the PT member’s biggest problem is in the second round, when he technically draws with his opponents in all scenarios tested by Datafolha. He says that Lula needs “a statistical fat of three or four points of margin, due to the different abstention in his case, due to the concentration of his votes at the base of the social pyramid, where the majority of those absent from the polls are.”
For Luciana Chong, general director of Datafolha, the comparison between the polls points to a scenario in which Lula has a smaller advantage even without sharing votes with other names on the left. She compares it with the 2002 table, which had more candidates considered at the time to be aligned with the field, such as Garotinho and Ciro Gomes.
In the current election, the dispersion is on the right, with Flávio, Caiado, Zema and other lesser politicians. “We will have to observe the behavior of voters who are voting for right-wing pre-candidates today [fora Flávio Bolsonaro]which together have 13% of voting intentions”, he states.
The fact that he is in the Presidency would weigh in favor of Lula, since polls show that the candidate for re-election tends to improve as the election progresses, says Chong.
The April 2026 result comes from a Datafolha survey carried out with 2,004 people aged 16 or over in 137 cities, from Tuesday (7) to Thursday (9). She is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) with code BR-03770/2026.
