The end of an era and the dawn of a new one: His downfall did not just bring relief to Brussels, but signaled a geopolitical seismic tremor.
As he prepares to take his seat at the leaders’ table, Europe is asking: Is this the man who will restore Budapest to democratic values, or a new, tough player who will play the game on his own terms?
who recently declared himself “in the service of Vladimir Putin.” For her, Peter Mayr’s victory was all the sweeter as voters decisively rejected Orban’s scare campaign, which sought to portray him as a partner of “dangerous” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
In his 16 years as Hungary’s prime minister, Orbán has delayed, opposed, mocked or blocked numerous EU decisions, notably regarding European support for Ukraine.
The “thorn” of Ukraine and sanctions
According to him one of the most pressing questions now for the EU will be how quickly Mayjar will lift Hungary’s block on a crucial €90 billion loan to Ukraine and the Union’s 20th round of sanctions against Russia.
Mayor said on Monday that he was ready to support the loan, provided that Hungary did not participate, the same terms, that is, that Orban had agreed to last December. However, his tepid support for Ukraine’s EU membership (“not in the next 10 years”) and sanctions on Russia is likely to cause concern, particularly among Kiev’s staunchest supporters such as Poland and the Baltic states.
“I understand the moral issues … but let’s not gouge out our own eyes,” Maynard said, expressing concern about the financial cost. His views are reminiscent of Belgian Prime Minister Bart de Vever, who has come under fire for saying Europe must regain access to cheap Russian energy.
Diplomatic bridges and energy independence
Speaking on Monday, von der Leyen did not dwell on those details. He compared the magnitude of Sunday’s result to the 1956 Hungarian uprising against the Soviet Union and to 1989, when Hungarians became the first in the Eastern bloc to tear down the barbed wire dividing Europe. “We will start working with the government as soon as possible,” she said.
Energy also remains a sensitive issue. While Mayar’s Tisza party has promised to phase out Russian energy imports by 2035, the EU wants to move much faster. Analysts believe that a central role will be played by Mayar’s likely choice for foreign minister, Anita Orbán (noun), a former diplomat who has written books on how the Kremlin uses energy as a foreign policy tool.
Return to European “normalcy”
Despite these tensions, Hungary under Majar seems likely to be a “normal” EU member state, arguing for its own interests, rather than instrumentalizing vetoes to promote those of Russia. “He is a national conservative of the EPP,” said Daniel Hegendus of the German Marshall Fund. “I think he understands that his political future is tied to the democratization of Hungary.”
For Mayor, the most urgent priority is to fulfill his campaign promise to “bring back” EU funds. Currently, 17 billion euros remain frozen due to failures in the fight against corruption and the independence of the judiciary. Time is pressing: Hungary and the Commission must agree on the use of almost 10 billion euros by the end of August.
Immigration and the “revenge” of Generation Z
Asylum policy can also cause friction, with Hungary being fined 1 million euros a day for breaking EU rules. Mayor said Europe “mismanaged” migration in 2015, but his views are in line with the current tough climate in the EU, which may even smooth out differences.
Laszlo Andor, a former Hungarian EU commissioner, emphasized that “Generation Z” played a key role in Mayar’s victory. These are the young people who were excluded from the Erasmus program due to Orbán’s clashes with the EU and, as Andor noted, “were waiting in silence for the moment when this could change electorally.”
