US military forces on Monday began enforcing all maritime traffic to and from the ports, opening a new, high-risk front after peace talks collapsed last weekend.
With a sufficient number of warships, a blockade could discourage many tankers attempting to transport oil to and from Iran.
However, US forces would have to seize ships attempting to break the blockade. Former and current officials stress that this is possible, but it is a complex operation that requires significant military resources.
How the block will work
Washington began the operation on Monday morning, deploying more than , according to a senior US official.
Deploying forces near Iran’s shores carries risks, as US assets could become targets of attack. For this reason, the US is expected to operate primarily on either side of the Straits of Hormuz, intercepting or restricting merchant ships to prevent them from entering or leaving Iranian ports.
Any warship may approach a tanker suspected of violating the blockade. If the crew refuses boarding, then specially trained forces, such as Marines or Navy SEALs, are brought in to conduct a resistance operation.
The US Navy has significant firepower in the region, including an aircraft carrier, guided missile destroyers, amphibious assault ships and other units. Most of them have the ability to deploy helicopters for boarding operations, while some can direct merchant ships into specific zones and keep them under control.
The US can also airlift boarding teams onto ships, even from countries bordering the Persian Gulf.
According to retired Rear Admiral John Miller, ships in Iran’s so-called “shadow fleet,” which export oil by circumventing sanctions, are likely to avoid involvement. Instead, Iranian-flagged ships are more likely to attempt transit, possibly accompanied by Revolutionary Guard forces.
The US has surveillance tools and data that allow it to monitor the movement of commercial ships in the area, while Gulf countries can help with drones and other systems.
If tankers are seized, the US will need crews to man them, as well as safe places to temporarily anchor them.
Why are they foreclosing?
According to an American official, President Donald Trump’s goal is to cut one of his main sources of income.
The decision came soon after ceasefire talks failed. Trump is calling for, among other things, full free passage through the Straits without tolls, an end to uranium enrichment and the abandonment of the nuclear program.
“We cannot allow one country to blackmail the world,” he said from the White House.
The US strategy is based on the assessment that economic suffocation.
Why didn’t it happen sooner?
The business is considered particularly demanding and risky. The Straits of Hormuz are narrow and exposed to Iranian attacks with mines, drones and speedboats.
Before the war, the US avoided such a blockade, believing Iran would respond by seizing tankers or mining the region, sending oil prices soaring.
Risk of escalation
Despite the losses, Iran retains significant military capabilities, including ballistic missiles and high-speed boats that could strike ships in the region.
If there are attacks on US ships or clashes during boarding operations, the tension could escalate further. In such an eventuality, Trump could consider new military strikes against Iran.
Although US officials estimate that the possibility of a direct attack is limited due to the weakening of Iranian forces, Tehran has already threatened to strike ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
