Less than two months before the opening of the 2026 World Cup, still in a scenario of uncertainty in the final stretch of preparation, Brazilians’ confidence in the national team is at its lowest level in history. Datafolha research shows that 29% of the population is betting on the title of the team led by Carlo Ancelotti in the tournament that will be played in the United States, Canada and Mexico.
In the same survey, France (17%) appears as the main alternative to Brazil, followed by Argentina and Germany (4%). Portugal, Spain, the United States and England are mentioned by at least 1% of respondents. Another 3% indicated different countries.
The sum of the rivals listed (34%) exceeds the percentage attributed to the Brazilian team itself, reinforcing the country’s loss of centrality as a great favorite for Brazilian fans.
The index registered by Brazil renews the negative record recorded in the previous survey, carried out in July 2025, and consolidates itself as the lowest percentage since the beginning of the series, around three decades ago. Nine months ago, shortly after Ancelotti’s arrival, 33% of those interviewed were betting on Brazil as champion.
In the most recent survey, Datafolha interviewed 2,004 people aged 16 or over, in 137 municipalities, between April 7 and 9, 2026. The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus.
In terms of gender, among men, the trust index in the title is 26%, while among women it reaches 32%. As the margin of error when dividing by gender is three percentage points, there is a tie in the limit of the margin of error.
Still in the male audience, it is noteworthy that France appears numerically ahead of Brazil, with 27% of citations, also in a scenario of a technical draw.
It is also possible to observe a difference between those who want Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) to be re-elected and those who prefer to elect Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. PT voters are more optimistic, with 36% indicating Brazil as the favorite for the title. The margin of error among Lula voters is three percentage points, plus or minus.
Among Bolsonaro voters, 26% bet that Brazil will win sixth place in North America. The margin of error is four percentage points, plus or minus.
Since hiring Ancelotti, the Brazilian team has resolved its most urgent problems, with stabilization in command and qualification for the World Cup, but it has not gotten rid of the deepest scars, such as the loss of identity on the field, the institutional wear and tear of the CBF and the breaking of the favorite aura.
Although he finished the last two friendlies before the call-up for the World Cup, scheduled for May 18, at the end of April, with “a very clear idea” of the squad he intends to take to North America, Carlo Ancelotti has still not managed to present the fans with a team with its consolidated identity.
Also according to Datafolha, 46% of Brazilians believe that Brazil will not progress past the quarterfinals in the World Cup, a phase in which it was eliminated in the last two editions of the tournament, in 2018 and 2022.
The evaluation is reinforced by the performance against an opponent with a higher technical level. Against France, even with an extra player for most of the game, Brazil was defeated 2-1, in a match that exposed difficulties in control and consistency in decisive moments.
Subsequently, the team reacted with a 3-1 victory over Croatia, but ended the last FIFA Data still under an atmosphere of distrust, without dispelling doubts about its competitiveness or closing the squad. The performance, however, at least expanded Ancelotti’s range of options, with the emergence of alternatives such as midfielder Danilo Santos and strikers Luiz Henrique and Endrick.
The Italian deals with challenges imposed on the team by a turbulent cycle, marked by successive changes of coach since Tite’s departure in 2022. Before hiring the European, Ramon Menezes, Fernando Diniz and Dorival Júnior led the national team. Ancelotti started his work in May 2025, that is, he did not complete even a year in the position.
The active time of the current president of the CBF, Samir
He was the fifth president of the entity to be removed or arrested in the last seven terms, consolidating a long institutional crisis in the highest entity of Brazilian football, which has an impact on the image that Brazilians have of the national team.
Measured by Datafolha since 1994, Brazilians’ opinion about the World Cup winner had its highest levels until 2014, always above 56% of those interviewed, with the greatest confidence recorded in 2006, under the effects of winning the world title in 2002.
Since the World Cup held in Brazil, 12 years ago, in an edition marked by Brazil’s 7-1 defeat to Germany in the semi-final, the relationship between fans and the green and yellow team has shaken.
In the following World Cup, Brazil went to Russia with an unprecedented confidence level below 50%, at 48%. Before the last edition, in Qatar in 2022, Tite managed to improve his brand, leading his squad with 54% favoritism.
Eliminated in the quarterfinals of the last two editions, the Brazilian team will now arrive in North America under a scenario of strong pessimism.
