“His defeat in the elections in Hungary deprives us of a personal ally and a rival of Ursula von der Leyen,” said Renaud Labay, a close associate of , leader of the National Rally (RN), the party that gives them first, ahead of the crucial ones in , in April 2027 (The exact date has not yet been set). Although it is not yet clear whether Le Pen will finally be able to run for president, due to her conviction for embezzlement of EU funds, the RN maintains its lead in the polls and was eyeing Orbán’s support.
Support – and financial – of Orbán to Marine Le Pen
Orbán’s Fidez party and Le Pen’s National Rally share a deep Euroscepticism, a love of referendums, a strict stance on immigration, a policy to increase births. In addition, Orbán actually supported Le Pen in 2022, when her campaign for that year’s presidential election was facing serious financial difficulties: Le Pen received a “loan” of 10.6 million euros from the Hungarian bank MKB, owned by the oligarch Lorenz Mezzaros, a friend of Viktor Orbán.
The Far Right leads the polls ahead of the 2027 elections
Despite losing Hungary’s support, the National Rally and its candidate, Jordan Bardela, are leading the polls, a year before the presidential election. French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist bloc, whose former prime minister Edouard Philippe is the strongest candidate, receives 20-25% of the vote. The former governing forces, the traditional French Right and the French Socialist Party, which alternated in power after the establishment of the Fifth French Republic (1958), have lost their ground and do not convince the voters.
Always according to opinion polls, the Socialist Party, in which many different currents can be distinguished, is said to capture, in the event that MEP Raphael Glucksman is its candidate, 15% in the first round of the presidential elections, while the far-left France Insubordinate (LFI), whose undisputed candidate is the party leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, fluctuates to 10%. The percentages of the traditional French Right (the Republican party), with the leading candidate Brino Retagio, former Minister of the Interior, are even lower, ranging from 5% to 10%.
France in an election campaign
A year until the presidential election is a long time and polls can be flipped. However, as France enters an election campaign, the poll by the Ipsos institute on behalf of the newspaper Le Monde, Cevipof (Research Center of the School of Political Sciences of Paris) and the think tank, Jean Jaurès, (Le Monde, 13/4/2026) captures, thanks to its large sample of 10,962 people registered in the electoral rolls, the picture of political landscape, within which, in the coming months, a special pre-election campaign will take shape.
Features of the election campaign ahead of 2027
Rise of the limbs
The election campaign is estimated to be characterized by the strong presence of the Far Right, by the voters’ deep desire for change, but also by polarization. The poll, which was conducted online between April 2 and 9, also records high abstention rates, which reached record levels of 42.1 percent in municipal elections on March 15 and 22.
According to 74% of the respondents, the far-right National Rally came out strengthened or very strengthened, from the electoral contest of the municipal elections, while 72% of the respondents answered that the far-left Insubordinate France, was the strengthened or the very strengthened of the municipal elections.
Popularity of presidential candidates
With the current data, regarding the candidates of the presidential elections, Jordan Bardela gathers 36% of the approval of the respondents, a percentage greater than Le Pen (33%). However, the possible candidacies of Bardela and Le Pen are rejected by 51% and 54% of respondents, respectively. In third place, former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, is acceptable at 26%.
The prospect of the election to the office of the president of France, the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon, is rejected by 81%, as is that of the far-right Eric Zemur (75%). Among supporters of the Socialist Party, the candidacy of MEP Raphael Glucksman, gathers 62% approval, compared to 38% for Olivier Faure, first secretary of the Socialist Party.
Deep desire for change – No to anarchy
However, beyond the issues of strategy and candidate selection, respondents express a deep desire for change, which has intensified in relation to the start of Macron’s second term in 2022. One in two respondents believes that French society must be “reformed in depth”, while 24% want its “radical transformation”, a percentage increased by eight points, compared to March 2023. The three a quarter of those polled want big changes, reacting to the inertia and lack of governance that has emerged since snap parliamentary elections in July 2024, which Macron called after his party’s defeat in the European elections in June of that year, where no party or political coalition won a parliamentary majority and France entered a long period of government crisis.
The issues that concern the French in the run-up to the presidential elections
For the vast majority of French people – 76% – the primary issue is maintaining the health system, while 66% put improving their purchasing power as a second priority. 56% ask for the improvement of the educational system and 53% prioritize the issue of security. Reducing public debt concerns 51% of respondents, while 49% wish to control immigration and 42% seek to maintain France’s high position in the world.
