If and when one is signed between him and him to end the war, he is sure to proclaim that it is better than the one his predecessor signed in 2015.
Trump is already saying it, upfront and at every opportunity. But he will also have to convince the Americans (and the world) that he is getting more favorable terms than those his own government negotiated with the Iranians in Geneva on the eve of war, in order to justify the surprise attack he launched, together with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. However, he will need to present something very spectacular, as until yesterday, only one in four American citizens said in a poll that the war was worth it, while 51% were negative and NATO allies refused to follow him, in a new war adventure in the Middle East.
The Obama deal
Donald Trump has proven to be the fatal man since his first term as president when he withdrew the US signature from the international agreement to control Tehran’s nuclear program. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was intended to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program would continue, but would be exclusively peaceful in nature. It provided for uranium enrichment to a low percentage (3.67%), strict on-site inspections by the International Atomic Energy Commission, over a 15-year horizon, while defining a timetable and arrangements for the lifting of international sanctions. The agreement was signed by Iran, USA, Britain, France, China, Russia and Germany, while it was solemnly approved by the UN Security Council, despite the strong reactions of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu from the floor of the General Assembly, as well as from the floor of the American Congress.
The new data
After the U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the deal in 2018, the Iranians gradually moved to high enrichment, resulting in about 440 kilograms of uranium-235, 60% enriched, one grade below that required to build a nuclear weapon.
With the US-Israeli bombings, the field of negotiation changed significantly. Iran is wounded, but capable of inflicting suffering on the Americans and their allies, while using the Straits of Hormuz and energy as leverage, rejecting from the outset Trump and Netanyahu’s demands for a definitive halt to its nuclear program. The discussion now focuses more on uranium enrichment, the fate of critical material stocks, navigation in the Straits, the lifting of economic sanctions, while the missile program seems to be off the agenda for now.
Uranium enrichment
In the talks, which began in Islamabad amid a fragile ceasefire, Washington demanded that Iran halt all uranium enrichment for 20 years, while Tehran reportedly countered with 5 years. It is noted that in the Geneva talks, the Americans asked to stop enrichment for 10 years, while the Iranians accepted a maximum of 3 years, according to Western sources.
Stockpiles of enriched uranium
The US wants the 440 kg of enriched uranium to be moved out of Iran, even asking for US agencies to oversee the process. Tehran countered by processing the material inside Iranian territory to reduce enrichment and return it to the 3.67% level stipulated in the JCPOA. The Iranians also appear willing to undertake the commitment that they will not store any more uranium, but will only enrich to the above percentage, for current needs, as they already have a nuclear power plant and are planning to build others.
Financial sanctions
Trump has for years accused his Democratic predecessors of “unfreezing” Iranian assets and sending “planes full of money” to Tehran, but the issue of lifting sanctions is back on the table. Iran’s pledged assets worldwide are estimated at $100 billion, nearly a quarter of the country’s GDP. Some funds were “frozen” in the US in 1979, after the overthrow of the Shah and the rise of the Islamic Revolution, others remain in the Gulf countries, several in Europe and East Asia. Supposedly, in Geneva there had been a convergence to lift 80% of the sanctions (not necessarily the corresponding amounts of the $100 billion), while the sanctions for human rights violations would remain in place.
Fees in the Straits?
Since the start of the war, Iran has imposed tolls for passage through the Straits of Hormuz, and now the US is imposing its own naval blockade against Iran. Tehran is seeking to establish, through the potential deal with the US, some sort of toll on tankers and other vessels, which would amount to overturning the rules of free navigation, to finance the reconstruction. However, on this issue too, the US wants to have the last word, while linking all economic issues to the nuclear deal.
It is considered rather unlikely that a package deal on all the above issues could be reached soon. This is one of the reasons why the extension of the ceasefire beyond April 21, and therefore the negotiation, is being considered, despite denials from the White House. But prolonged uncertainty fuels energy prices, opens up opportunities for speculators and increases the chances of an “unforeseen” event that would lead to an even greater escalation.
