Trying to read the behavior of the electorate in October in an April survey is little more than an exercise in palmistry, especially when 62% are undecided.
For months now, every poll has been bringing bad news for . For the first time, it exceeded it (42% x 40%), within the margin of error and in a stimulated scenario. The bitter taste of this research lies in its rejection. Lula has 55%, and Flávio has 52%, again within the margin of error.
The third way has two candidates: , the former governor of Minas Gerais, and , the former governor of Goiás. In the scenario of a second round dispute, Lula hovers around 40%, while both have a slight upward bias. Zema has 36%, and Caiado, 35%.
It cannot be nailed, but the . Zema and Caiado came from well-evaluated governments. Minas Gerais with 47% and Goiás with 85%. They need to fish for their votes among the undecided and the 42% who are with Flávio Bolsonaro. As administrative experience, he was limited to managing a surname and . The campaign may favor them.
The wind of electoral campaigns throws predictions based solely on research into disarray. Conventional wisdom works with the hypothesis of a second round between Lula and Flávio, but in 1989 a second round between Fernando Collor and Leonel Brizola was expected. In August, Lula had just 5% of preferences, with a downward trend. In September, it reached 16%, surpassing Brizola. Two months later, Lula went to the second round, when he was beaten by Fernando Collor.
(In that election, Ronaldo Caiado ran for President for the first time and ended up in tenth place, with 0.72% of the votes.)
Sidônio in the frying pan
As happened with his predecessor, the winds of public opinion blow against Planalto, and the responsibility lies with the Minister of Social Communication, the marketer.
Come to think of it, that’s what the Secom minister is for.
BC e o BRB
The Central Bank may have been slow to act on the Master, or not. One thing is certain, the BC did not act in time regarding the Banco Regional de Brasília, which operated as Daniel Vorcaro’s cash cow.
The president of the BRB at the time of Vorcaro should have been arrested more than a year ago.
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