When Brazil takes the field against tomorrow at 7pm, cities will stop. Bars fill up, traffic changes rhythm, friends meet and even those who are working will find a screen or a radio. Yes, there is beauty in this ability to create belonging and collective memory. However, when the result goes against expectations, what for most people becomes resignation or a joke can increase the risk at home.
For women who already live under coercion, financial dependence and isolation, the partner’s frustration with defeat, the difficulty of moving away from the aggressor and financial losses from gambling can precipitate an episode of domesticity. In the six hours after the match, the number of police reports rose by 5.7% in the municipalities most exposed to a sporting disappointment. Despite this, they did not register an increase in reports via calls to 180. These estimates are from the researchers, in a recently accepted study and are based on 2,105 .
And unfortunately, we are not alone. In English football, those matches starting before 7pm were followed by an 8% increase in incidents of drunk attackers over the next 16 hours. Outside of this context, records drop during the match and rise to the same extent when it ends, according to an analysis of 434,596 calls and 800 matches from the Manchester City and Manchester United teams.
Along these lines, unexpected defeats by home teams that were favorites increased reports of violence by men against their wives and girlfriends at home by around 10%. When defeats were predictable, there was no increase in cases. These are the results of the economists’ study when analyzing the American football league.
So, if the risk changes in short windows, the answer cannot be thought only from the formal existence of services. One of the few Brazilian evaluations of the topic, carried out by, shows why: in capitals and large metropolitan areas, where there is more service infrastructure and alternatives to leaving the relationship, the opening of police stations appears to be associated with a 17% drop in female homicides. In smaller cities and rural areas, there is no detectable effect. In other words, simply opening a new police station is not enough.
Then, if records indicate an increase after important matches, the public response can be adjusted to that range. 180 could be more publicized during times of greatest risk; specialized police stations could expand teams; and the flow between police, hospitals, social assistance and shelters could be prepared before demand arises. Clubs, broadcasters and platforms could also test messages at strategic times, evaluating whether they contribute to increasing the demand for help.
Therefore, the evaluation of protection policies needs to focus on the victim’s journey: whether they were treated, received appropriate referrals, obtained protective measures and, most importantly, stopped suffering further attacks. Without this process, we run the risk of confusing available service with protection.
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