And the topic was also the new budget. The President of the European Council, António Costa, faced the difficult task of unblocking the negotiations on the new seven-year EU budget for 2028-2034. The European Commission is demanding a massive budget of around two trillion euros, while the previous proposal was 1.8 trillion. This is met with resistance from member states struggling with their own financial deficits. The final agreement is expected by the end of 2026.
The leaders in Cyprus thus realized that the absence of Viktor Orbán at the negotiating table does not automatically mean consensus. This was also confirmed by Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever, when he reminded that there are still enough leaders in Europe with different ideas about the future of the bloc.
(Un)successful naval blockade
The conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran has transformed into an economic and naval war after eight weeks. The US continues to take a hard line – The Pentagon confirmed that US forces in the Indian Ocean carried out a so-called maritime interdiction and boarded the sanctioned vessel M/T Majestic X, which was carrying Iranian oil.
The US blockade of sea traffic to and from Iranian ports has been in place since April 13. In addition, President Donald Trump issued an uncompromising order to the US Navy to fire without hesitation on any ships attempting to lay mines in the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Trump publicly claims that the blockade is “one hundred percent effective” and that Iran’s economy is bleeding.
Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz
However, the reality on the water is more complex. For example, Iranian naval forces detained two cargo ships MSC Francesca and Epaminondas in the strait, although the Greek authorities denied the loss of control over the latter. Tehran, in turn, began to collect tolls from ships for passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
The closure of this key hub, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil supplies flow, has already triggered a spike in energy prices and fears of a shortage of jet fuel in Europe.
The situation therefore also worries European leaders. Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa warned in the context of the energy crisis that the current tools of the European Commission to fight inflation and fuel prices will not be enough and Europe must actively look for new solutions. Israel, meanwhile, is waiting for a “green light from the US,” with Defense Minister Yisrael Kac saying Israel is ready to return Iran to the “Stone Age.”
Lebanon: Fragile ceasefire and pressure for an agreement
And while tension reigns in the Gulf, there has been a glimmer of hope on the front between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. During the meeting at the White House, it was possible to extend the fragile truce for another three weeks. US President Donald Trump hosted Israeli Ambassador Jechiel Leiter and Lebanese Ambassador Nada Moawad, saying there was a “huge chance” of a peace deal this year.
The atmosphere in Washington was formally optimistic – Trump even spoke of wanting to make “Lebanon great again” in terms of his own Make America Great Again (MAGA).
However, the reality in the Middle East is different. Just a day before the extension of the ceasefire was announced, Lebanon experienced the bloodiest day since its introduction. Israeli airstrikes killed three people in the south of the country, including journalist Amal Khalil. The Israeli army, in turn, faced rocket attacks and drone attacks from Hezbollah.
Israel currently occupies a security zone extending five to ten kilometers inside Lebanese territory. Access to Hezbollah remains a key point of contention. While the Israeli side demands its complete eradication, Lebanon demands the withdrawal of Israeli troops and an agreement on borders. At the same time, Trump surprisingly called on Lebanon to repeal laws prohibiting the normalization of relations with Israel, which is an extremely ambitious demand in the context of current Middle East politics.
Trump’s play for time in the shadow of the election
This whole geopolitical game boils down to one fundamental question at the moment: Who will last longer? President Trump is trying to convince Tehran and the American public that he does not feel the time pressure. “I have all the time in the world, but Iran doesn’t. Don’t curse me,” Trump told critics.
However, a strong pressure is bubbling under the surface of this attitude. The war has been going on for almost eight weeks now, although the White House originally promised the operation would last four to six weeks. November’s congressional elections are less than seven months away, and the numbers are not looking good for the administration.
According to a recent poll, only 25 percent of Americans consider the war a strategic success. And although the American loss of life with 13 fallen soldiers is still relatively low, American voters are increasingly beginning to worry about the economic impact in the form of expensive gasoline.
According to many analysts, Iran is using an asymmetric war strategy. He does not need to defeat the United States militarily. It is enough for him to make the conflict expensive and prolong it enough to break the American political will. While Trump views success through the prism of economic prosperity and believes that a blockade will force Tehran to capitulate, Iran’s leaders, shaped by decades of sanctions and the eight-year war with Iraq in the 1980s, are set differently.
The question remains whether Trump’s words about enough time reflect a well-thought-out strategy or just an attempt to avoid criticism for failing in a war that cannot be easily and especially quickly won.
Photo of the week:
What else awaits us:
- The two-day informal summit of the European Union continues. Slovakia is represented by Prime Minister Robert Fico.
- French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Greece. He will meet with Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and President Konstantinos Tasoulas.
- The governments of Colombia and the Netherlands are hosting the first international conference on phasing out fossil fuels. Representatives of 45 countries, civil society, indigenous communities, academics and experts will take part in it in Colombia.
- Stanislav Přibyl will be in the Cathedral of St. Vít, Václav and Vojtech ceremoniously introduced to the post of Archbishop of Prague.
- Municipal elections will be held in the West Bank.
- 40th anniversary of the disaster at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine.
- Launch of the Progress MS-34 cargo ship with supplies for the International Space Station (ISS).
