A new Reuters/Ipsos poll revealed that the majority of Americans attribute responsibility for the rise in gasoline prices in the United States to Donald Trump. The result represents a severe blow to the Republican administration, which is facing growing inflationary pressure amid the conflict in the Middle East.
According to analyst Fernanda Magnotta, in CNN 360°the current economic scenario worries Trump, who did not believe he would be held directly responsible for the side effects of the war. “The climate in the United States for any type of activity is no longer the most inviting,” explained Magnotta, remembering that similar economic issues have already harmed the Democrats in the last elections.
The crisis in the so-called “affordability” (cost of living) has been consistently highlighted as the main concern of American voters in several surveys. represents a central element in this issue, not only due to its direct impact on the consumer’s pocket, but also due to its ripple effect throughout the economy, especially in the food sector.
Impacts on midterm elections
The analyst highlights that the current scenario could complicate the mid-term legislative elections. “This puts a lot of pressure on President Trump and will, perhaps, explain a kind of relative distancing from other Republicans, even within the Maga base”, assesses Magnotta.
If Trump loses his majority in one of the houses of Congress in November, his governability over the next two years would be compromised. The situation is worsened by the fact that the president apparently expected the conflict to be “shorter, more assertive, more objective” and would not drag the United States into what the analyst describes as “a kind of shaky ground.”
Iran’s position in the negotiations also complicates the situation. According to Magnotta, the country finds itself at a relative advantage in negotiations, whether through control of the Strait of Hormuz or through the support of indirect allies (proxies), reducing its incentives to give in in negotiations. Meanwhile, the domestic political cost for Trump continues to rise, with direct impacts on his administration.
