The tension that has surrounded Iran for months is no longer just a matter of distant geopolitics, but increasingly, from the price we pay to fill the tank to the cost of getting on a plane. What began as a shock to the energy markets threatens to translate into something much more tangible: fewer flights, more expensive tickets and a system on the limit.
In this context, Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), has issued a clear warning: if not from the Middle East, Europe could start seeing flight cancellations due to lack of fuel in a matter of weeksevidencing the extent to which the energy crisis is already knocking on the door of everyday life.
The warning is not a distant hypothesis, but an increasingly closer possibility if the energy blockade continues. “I can assure you that we will soon hear news that some flights from city A to city B could be canceled due to lack of jet fuel.”said the director in an interview with . A reflection of a system that, although it has not yet collapsed, is beginning to show signs of fatigue under the pressure of the markets and the conflict in the Middle East.
“Maybe six weeks.”
The warnings are also supported by calculations that further reduce the room for maneuver. According to Birol, Europe would have “perhaps six weeks of jet fuel”an estimate that underlines the speed with which a geopolitical crisis can be directly transferred to the daily operations of aviation. In practice, such a tight horizon leaves little room for improvisation.
The problem, they warn from the sector, is that it is not just a question of reserves, but of logistics and costs: Even with fuel available, its rising prices are forcing airlines to rethink entire operations. Some companies are already cutting unprofitable routes or adjusting frequencies, anticipating a scenario in which maintaining normal activity could no longer be sustainable on certain European connections.
The impact is already noticeable in some airlines such as KLM, which announced the Cancellation of 160 flights next month due to high price of kerosenejet fuel. Although they represent less than 1% of its schedule, these cancellations serve as a tangible example of the financial pressures suffered by the airline sector.
Behind this crisis is the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which in normal times about a fifth of the oil traded in the world passes. Fatih warns that if the route remains compromised It will also push up gasoline, gas and electricity, with more damage to the most fragile economies. At the moment, there is no complete shortage in the European system, but the margin of safety is rapidly narrowing.
