Senate has approved all nominations to the STF since 1988; scenario favors Messiah - News Room USA

The nomination of the Union’s attorney general, Jorge Messias, to the Federal Supreme Court (STF) reaches the Senate under a pattern that has been maintained for more than three decades. Since redemocratization, no name nominated by the President of the Republic to the court has been rejected. The history supports the government’s assessment that the risk of defeat is low, even in the face of resistance from the opposition.

To be approved, Messiah needs 41 votes in the plenary. Palácio do Planalto works with a more comfortable margin and claims to have around 50 supports. The opposition projects a tighter scenario and assesses that the nominee may not reach 35 favorable votes.

Even with differences in the count, the Senate’s retrospect weighs on the analysis. The closest case to close approval occurred in 1992, when Francisco Rezek received 45 votes in favor. The number still far exceeds the minimum required, which reinforces the view that approval usually occurs even in adverse scenarios.

Senate has approved all nominations to the STF since 1988; scenario favors Messiah

Greater resistance in recent votes

Although the approval pattern remained the same, the Senate’s behavior changed over time. More recent nominations registered a significant increase in votes against, reflecting greater political polarization.

André Mendonça, approved in 2021, received 32 votes against. In 2023, Flávio Dino had 31 votes against. Before them, Edson Fachin faced 27 votes against in 2015. These numbers indicate that the plenary has become more divided, although not to the point of barring nominations.

At the other end, the looser votes occurred in different political contexts. Luiz Fux was approved with 68 votes in 2011, followed by Ellen Gracie, with 67, and Joaquim Barbosa, with 66. These cases illustrate moments of greater convergence between the Executive and the Senate.

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Vote margin becomes a political signal

Given this history, the government’s strategy has been to expand the support base to avoid a tight score. The size of the vote began to function as a thermometer of the relationship between Planalto and Congress, in addition to indicating the degree of political resistance to the nominee.

Messias’ nomination comes after tensions with the Senate throughout the selection process. The recent improvement in the political environment, combined with the historical approval pattern, supports the expectation of advancement of the name in the plenary.

Even with the favorable trend, the final result must be observed not only by the confirmation of the vacancy, but by the number of votes obtained, which can signal the level of cohesion of the government base in Congress.

See votes received by previous nominations: