The Americans are studying how he would react if the US president unilaterally declared victory in the two-month long war that has claimed thousands of lives and has become a political burden for the US, two US officials and a person familiar with the matter said.
The intelligence community is considering this question along with others at the request of senior government officials. The goal is to understand the implications of a possible decision by Trump to withdraw from a conflict that some officials and advisers say could contribute to heavy losses for Republicans in midterm elections later this year, the sources said.
Analysis of the situation is not complete
While no decision has been made — and Trump could easily escalate military operations again — a quick de-escalation could ease political pressure on the president, even if it leaves behind an emboldened Iran that could eventually rebuild its nuclear and missile programs and threaten US allies in the region.
The sources spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information matters.
It is unclear when the intelligence community will complete its analysis, but in the past it has already considered the possible reaction of the Iranian leadership to a US victory announcement.
In the days following the initial bombing campaign in February, intelligence agencies estimated that if Trump declared victory and the US reduced its military presence in the region, Iran would likely hail it as its own victory, one of the sources said.
If instead Trump declared that the US had won but maintained a strong military presence in the region, Iran would likely interpret that as a negotiating tactic, but not necessarily a move that would lead to the end of the war, the same source added.
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the United States continues to engage with the Iranians in negotiations and will not “rush into a bad deal.”
“The president will only make a deal if it puts US national security first and has made it clear that Iran can never get a nuclear weapon,” it said.
Trump’s ratings are plummeting
Polls show that the war is overwhelmingly unpopular among Americans. Just 26 percent of respondents to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week said the military campaign was worth its cost, while only 25 percent said it had made the United States safer.
Three people familiar with White House discussions in recent days described Trump as acutely aware of the political cost he and his party are paying.
Twenty days after Trump announced a ceasefire, a series of diplomatic initiatives have failed to fully open the economically vital Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran closed by attacking ships and laying mines in the narrow seaway.
The disruption to shipping that carries about 20% of the world’s crude oil has raised energy costs worldwide as well as gasoline prices in the United States. Iran’s ability to disrupt trade gives it a strong bargaining chip against the US and its allies.
Trump’s negotiations and choices
A decision to reduce the US military presence in the region, combined with a mutual lifting of the embargo, could eventually lead to a drop in gasoline prices.
However, so far the two sides appear to be far from any agreement.
Last weekend, Trump canceled a trip by his special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner to meet with Iranian officials in Pakistan, telling reporters on Saturday that it would “take a long time” and that if Iran wanted to talk “all he had to do was call.”
Several military options remain officially on the table, including resuming airstrikes against Iran’s military and political leaders, according to another person familiar with the administration’s dealings.
One of the US officials and another person familiar with the discussions said, however, that the more ambitious of those options — such as a ground invasion of Iranian soil — now looks less likely than it did a few weeks ago.
A White House official described the internal pressure on the president to end the war as “tremendous”.
One of the sources said Iran has taken advantage of the ongoing ceasefire to retrieve launchers, ammunition, drones and other military hardware buried by US and Israeli bombing in the first weeks of the conflict.
As a result, the tactical costs of resuming a full-scale war are arguably higher now than they were in the early days of the ceasefire, which began on April 8.
