The rejection of Jorge Messias’ name from the Federal Supreme Court, after a vote in the Senate, this Wednesday (29), was not just a political setback for the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) government. The assessment was carried out during the Risk Map, a policy program for the InfoMoneythis Friday (1st).
In Brasília, the episode began to be interpreted as a deeper signal about the direction of power and, mainly, about how the political establishment itself sees the 2026 electoral scenario.
“Brasília is trying to realize that the perspective of power is more on the side of Flávio Bolsonaro today”, stated XP political analyst, Bárbara Baião.
The reading is not only based on the result of the vote, but on the behavior of the main political actors throughout the process. Decisions of this type, rare in recent history, tend to reflect broader assessments of political cost and benefit.
Early power signaling
Behind the scenes, the assessment is that movements like the one in the Senate, which imposed a harsh defeat on the incumbent president, rarely happen without a consolidated perception of a change in the balance of forces. Parliamentarians, especially those with greater influence, tend to anticipate scenarios and adjust positions before they materialize at the polls.
“A decision that only happens in more than a century is not taken without great certainty of the political crossing,” said Baião when reporting the atmosphere among senators.
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In this context, the government’s defeat works as an indication that a relevant part of Congress already considers an alternation of power in the next electoral cycle plausible, or even likely.
Political calculation and survival
The movement is also linked to the direct interests of parliamentarians. Congressional leaders operate with a focus on their own political survival, which includes re-election, maintaining influence and access to resources.
As 2026 approaches, this calculation begins to incorporate not only the current scenario, but expectations for the next government, including who will have the strength to influence the agenda and occupy strategic spaces.
In this sense, the dispute over indirect control of the Federal Supreme Court gains additional relevance, as new appointments could redefine the Court’s balance in the coming years.
On the Planalto side, members of the government avoid treating the episode as a definitive change of scene and work with the hypothesis that there is still room for political recomposition.
The strategy involves avoiding ruptures with allies and preserving bridges for the election. At the same time, the government is trying to reinforce its economic and social agenda as a way to regain support outside Brasília.
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The internal reading is that the electoral game is still open, and that decisions taken under pressure could compromise competitiveness in the medium term.
Between perception and reality
The central point, however, is that politics in Brasília operates as much on facts as on perceptions. And, at this moment, the dominant perception among a relevant part of the political system points to a possible change of cycle.
This anticipation tends to influence alliances, votes and strategic decisions in the coming months, increasing the government’s difficulty in consolidating a majority in Congress.
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The Risk Map, the policy program of the InfoMoneyairs every Friday, starting at 5am, on YouTube and your favorite podcast player.
