Greg Shirah / Paul Newman / NASA / GSFC
Ozone hole in 2000 recorded by NASA
Chemicals used in certain industries, such as plastics production, are delaying the targets set out in the Montreal Protocol by around seven years.
O Montreal Protocolsigned in 1987, successfully eliminated most substances that destroy the ozone layer, such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFC), widely used in refrigeration and aerosols. The agreement has been hailed as one of the most effective global environmental policieswith studies suggesting that the ozone layer could recover to 1980 levels as early as 2040.
However, a new published in Nature Communications reveals that a gap in the treaty may be delaying this recovery by allow the use of certain chemicals as industrial raw materials.
Researchers, including scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), discovered that emissions from these raw materials are significantly higher than previously assumed. While previous estimates suggested that only about 0.5% of these chemicals would leak into the atmosphere, recent data indicates leakage rates closer to 3.6%.
“These chemicals used as raw materials are a problem in the system”, he stated Susan Solomonone of the main authors of the study and a key figure in identifying the original cause of the hole in the ozone layer.
The research uses data from global monitoring networks, including the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gas Experiment (AGATE), and models how continued emissions could affect the recovery of the ozone layer. The results suggest that if current leakage rates persist, recovery of the ozone layer could be delayed by approximately seven yearsgoing from around 2066 to 2073, says .
While emissions of ozone-depleting substances are still declining overall due to existing restrictions, the study warns that emissions related to raw materials could stabilize in the coming decadesrather than continuing to fall, compromising long-term progress.
The problem arises from the continuous use of these chemicals in manufacturing processes, including production of plastics and coatings. Although they must be completely transformed during production, some escape into the atmosphere, contributing to the destruction of the ozone layer.
Scientists say reducing these emissions will be crucial to maintaining the success of the Montreal Protocol. Proposed solutions include improving industrial processes to minimize leaksreplace harmful chemicals with safer alternatives or eliminate their use altogether.
Despite concerns, researchers remain optimistic and note that the chemical industry has a solid history of innovation and could adapt to new demands. International discussions are already underway between countries participating in the Montreal Protocol to address the issue.
