Average increase in electricity bills in Brazil could exceed 15% in 2026, says former director of Aneel; in April, IPCA should already feel an effect
The adjustment in electricity tariffs authorized by Aneel (National Electric Energy Agency) should impact inflation rates in the coming months, starting with the IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index) for April, which will be released on May 12th.
The agency’s measure, approved in the last week of April, directly affects consumers’ cost of living and the operational costs of the production sector. According to experts, the average energy adjustment in 2026 could exceed 15%.
André Braz, coordinator of Price Indices at FGV Ibre (Brazilian Institute of Economics of Fundação Getulio Vargas), stated this Monday (May 4, 2026) that electricity, as an administered price, generates concentrated impacts in the short term.
According to the economist, the item is part of the Housing group, with a weight of approximately 3.5% in the full index. “If the adjustment takes place throughout the month, the effect is proportional, reflecting only the days on which the new tariff was in effect”declared Braz.
Read the validity and adjustments authorized by Aneel:
- Cemig (MG): 6.70% (May 28);
- Neoenergy (PE): 3,62% (29.abr);
- Cosern (RN): 8.14% (effective on April 22);
- Sulgipe (SE): 2,36% (22.abr);
- Coelba (BA): 1,53% (22.abr);
- Enel Ceará (CE): -2,81% (22.abr);
- CPFL Paulista (SP): 1,46% (8.abr);
- Energisa (MS): 1,45% (8.abr);
- Energisa MT (MT): -5,61% (8.abr).
IMPACT
Inflationary pressure should be felt more strongly in May’s IPCA, since the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) reported that the recent readjustments had no impact on the indexes already closed for March and will have a partial effect in April.
Edvaldo Santana, former director of Aneel, stated that the real impact on the accounts could be much higher than official projections.
The expert stated that, although the agency has announced an average increase of approximately 8% in 2026, the real scenario is more severe. “Contrary to what Aneel said, the average increase in Brazil will be above 15% this year”he stated.
Santana stated that the government and the regulatory agency usually use deferral to soften the immediate impact, but highlighted that “This is very expensive for the consumer” in the long term, as it postpones interest costs until the following year.
According to IBGE data, the sub-item residential electricity registered an increase of 0.13% in March, with a monthly weight of 4.02% in the index.
The upward movement in the 9 States will be monitored in the next release of the IPCA, scheduled for May 12th. Santana stated that the future scenario is worrying: “The increase will be much greater than what Aneel has said and what the government expects, because there is a risk of new tariff pressures throughout 2026”.
The Federal Court of Auditors and other control bodies monitor the balance of tariffs, while analysts emphasize the economy’s ability to absorb these costs.
