The municipal and regional elections held in United Kingdom this Thursday, May 7, have become a crucial test for the Labor Government of Keir Starmer when he has not yet completed two years in Downing Street. The polls predict a debacle of the prime minister’s party and also a setback of the conservatives, that is, an erosion of the bipartisanship that would give wings to the far-right of Reform UKthe leftists of the Green Party and the nationalist formations of Scotland y Gales.
The electoral event is threefold: the Parliaments of Scotland and Wales and some 5,000 councilors are elected in 136 town halls of englandsome of which are completely renewed and others partially. But some of the main mayoralties, such as those of London, Manchester or Birmingham, do not come into play in these elections. If the polls are right, the elections could draw a British map with nationalist governments in three of the four historical territories: Scotland, Gales e Northern Ireland.
National surveys
In the three votes, Labor appears, in the most favorable scenario, as the third force in the voters’ preference. According to the latest YouGov poll, Reform UKthe populist party Nigel Farageleads voting intentions at the national level with 26%, followed by Conservative Party (19%) and the Labour (18%), while the Greens (15%) surpass the Liberal Democrats. The sum of Conservatives and Labor could fall below 40% of support.
Polls in England
In EnglandStarmer’s party risks losing a large part of the seats it occupies in many town councils and which it won in 2022, when the Conservative Partythen led by Boris Johnsonretreated strongly as a result of ‘Partygate’. Now it is Labor who is enormously unpopular due to Starmer’s policies. Currently, Labor has 2,569 councillors, followed by the Conservatives with 1,369, the Liberal Democrats with 693, the Greens with 144 and Reform UK with 2.
If the setback were confirmed, Labor would have to form alliances with other parties if it wants to retain part of the great municipal power it now has, being the Green Party on his left and Liberal Democratic Party on his right his most accessible allies.
Polls in Scotland
In Scotlandwhere voters will elect the 129 members that make up the Holyrood Parliament, polls place the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) as the first force, although without consensus on whether it will achieve an absolute majority in the regional Parliament, a result that would reopen the debate on a new independence referendum.
The independence movement may benefit from the rise of Reform UK because it contributes to dividing the vote against secession. Some analysts predict more than 20 seats in the Scottish Parliament and a very bitter fight with Labor for second place.
Polls in Wales
And in Wales, where Labor has been hegemonic for 27 years, the Welsh Party (Plaid Cymru) appears in the polls fighting for first place, in some cases, with Reform UKin an equally fragmented scenario. However, polls suggest that Welsh nationalists may need external support or a coalition to form a government.
The Welsh will elect the new Seneddthe Cardiff Parliament, which in this electoral event is expanded from 60 to 96 seats.
It is worth remembering that, at least until now, due to size and territorial implementation, the two major parties have benefited from the British electoral system of uninominal majority votein which the candidate with the most votes in each constituency wins the seat. This model is used in municipal elections in England, while regional elections in Wales and Northern Ireland use a proportional systemand in those of Scotland a mixed system.
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