The senator (-RJ) maintains a technical tie with the president () in a second round simulation for 2026, according to the Meio Ideia survey released this Wednesday (6).
In the direct confrontation, Flávio scores 45.3%, compared to Lula’s 44.7%. The 0.6 point difference is within the margin of error of 2.5 percentage points. It is the second consecutive month that the senator appears numerically ahead of the president in the second round of the survey.
The survey interviewed 1,500 people across Brazil from Friday (1st) until this Tuesday (5th), through telephone interviews. The confidence interval is 95%. The survey is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under protocol BR-05356/2026.
In April, 60.4% of Flávio’s voters said they could change candidates. Now, the index has dropped to 43.1%. Among Lula voters, the willingness to change their vote remained stable, at 27%.
In another second round simulation, Lula scored 44.7% compared to 40% for the former governor of Goiás (). In a clash with the former governor of Minas Gerais (Novo), the pre-candidate for re-election has 44% compared to 39% for his rival.
In the stimulated first round scenario, Lula leads with 40%, and Flávio has 36%. Caiado appears in third, with 5.6%, Zema scores 3% and Ciro Gomes (PSDB), 2.3%.
In the spontaneous question, Lula has 33.4% of mentions and Flávio, 20%. Former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), ineligible, is still remembered by 4%. Next come Caiado, with 3.7%, and Zema, with 3%. Those who don’t know or don’t mention anyone make up 23.1%.
In the government’s general assessment, 46.3% classify management as bad or terrible, and 31.5% as excellent or good. Another 21% rate it as regular.
In direct approval, 53% disapprove of Lula’s leadership, against 44% who approve.
When asked whether Lula deserves to continue in office after 2026, 52% said no, compared to 44% who answered yes.
The rejection of Jorge Messias by the Senate for a vacancy on the (Supreme Federal Court) was followed by 58.6% of those interviewed. Interpretations are divided, and 36% consider that the result of the hearing was an effort by the opposition to weaken the government, 35% consider it a defeat that exposes Lula’s fragility, and 12% believe that the Senate fulfilled its role.
Regarding the next nomination, 39.4% prefer a technical name, with no direct connection to the government, and 37% want Lula to maintain his political profile.
A portion of 42.7% say they would vote more likely for a Senate candidate who promised to impeach court ministers — a figure that was 45.4% in April.
The research dedicated a block to the impact of online betting, a topic that has been addressed by Lula in the pre-campaign. The majority of respondents (59%) blame betting for contributing to family debt, and 61.9% believe that they are addicting the population. One in four Brazilians (25%) admits to having bet online in the last 30 days.
Regarding the end of the 6×1 work schedule, 73.7% of Brazilians say they are in favor, compared to 21.5% who are against it. The main perceived gain is the possibility of spending more time with family (33.7%), followed by rest (24%).
