The new Meia/Ideia survey released this Wednesday (6) points to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the lead in the first round of the 2026 presidential race, with 40% of voting intentions. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) appears in second place, with 36%, keeping the election polarized between the two political camps.
Despite Lula’s numerical advantage in the first round, the data shows a tighter scenario in a possible direct dispute. In the second round, Flávio Bolsonaro recorded 45.3% of voting intentions, while Lula had 44.7%, configuring a technical tie.
The survey was completed after a week of political pressure on the federal government. The Senate rejected the nomination of Jorge Messias to the Federal Supreme Court, and Congress overturned the presidential veto on the Dosimetria PL, two consecutive defeats for Planalto.
Behind Lula and Flávio, the other pre-candidates appear to be performing far from the leaders. Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) records 5.6%, followed by Romeu Zema (Novo), with 3%. Ciro Gomes appears with 2.3%, while Augusto Cury has 1.5% and Renan Santos has 1.4%.
Blank and invalid votes represent 3.7% of the electorate interviewed, and 5.4% said they did not know who they would vote for.
In the other second round scenarios tested, Lula appears in a more comfortable situation. Against Caiado, he would win by 44.7% to 40%. Against Romeu Zema, he would have a wider advantage, by 55% to 39%.
Continues after advertising
The survey was carried out between May 1st and 5th with 1,500 respondents across the country. The margin of error is 2.5 percentage points, plus or minus, with a 95% confidence level. The research is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number BR-05356/2026.
