Russian President Vladimir Putin said during Victory Day weekend military parades celebrating the defeat of Nazi Germany by the Soviet Union that he believed the war with Ukraine “is coming to an end.”
This statement, Putin’s first real indication that , came after a long speech about the failed negotiations at the start of the 2022 invasion, and was very brief.
However, Putin is not a man who speaks casually or erratically. The rare departure from his usual position may have been designed to sustain the illusion that peace in Ukraine could soon be negotiated, a hope that the Kremlin chief seeks to keep alive.
Even so, on a day when Moscow was in full military mobilization, Putin chose not to reinforce that the “special military operation” must continue until its objectives are achieved. Especially because these objectives – demilitarizing Ukraine and taking over the eastern region of Donbass – are far from being achieved.
Instead, Putin seemed to reflect the prevailing sentiment in Russia, evidenced by the latest opinion polls, that the war needs to end quickly.
There was another twist to Putin’s surprise move: He suggested that Gerhard Schröder, who was German chancellor from 1998 to 2005 during Putin’s honeymoon with the West, be the reference for any future direct negotiations with Europe.
Schröder was chairman of the board of directors of Russia’s Nord Stream gas pipeline project until he resigned after the 2022 invasion, but has remained close to Putin. Initial reports indicate that Europe’s immediate response to Putin’s idea was weak, but the proposal has come into Washington’s focus and further complicates genuine efforts to .
It’s easy to see Putin’s new speech on diplomacy as just another of his lip service to peace over the past year. But the perception that Putin’s government needs a near-total victory in Ukraine to survive has changed.
Widespread criticism of the conduct, duration and terrible human and economic costs of the war has emerged across Russia, alongside talk among Moscow’s elite that Putin may simply not survive the war politically.
It is difficult to see the parade in Red Square as anything other than a surprising humiliation for the Kremlin stronghold.
Before the event, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky issued a “decree” authorizing the parade and preventing Ukrainian forces from attacking the area. The absence of Russian military equipment at the parade also stands in stark contrast to the show of force that previous years provided, when Western weapons experts looked at the latest tank models to notice small upgrades. This year, Moscow only had soldiers, and they are also becoming increasingly scarce.
Europe has long harbored a desperate – even fanciful – hope that Russia would one day collapse into war. Without true European or NATO military involvement, Europe’s only strategy has been to apply pressure and hope that Moscow relents before Kiev does. With Trump’s return to the White House last year, Europeans had no other choice.
The war has been marked by successes and failures for both sides. Russia’s initial failures led to Ukrainian territory being seized, held, and then lost. Then Moscow’s stubbornness led to a slow takeover of small parts of the front line that destroyed Ukraine’s limited manpower.
Last year, Kiev seemed in danger, without resources and without the full support of its most important ally, the United States. But this latest reversal of fortunes is different for two reasons.
First, the collapse of Russia’s morale is palpable. This only occurs in a police state when a large mass of disenchanted people begin to see themselves as the majority and start to feel confident enough to raise their heads.
Putin has survived fierce criticism of his war before — when the short-lived coup led by Yevgeny Prigozhin faltered as quickly as it began in 2023. But he is running out of impoverished or convicted Russians to enlist and has had difficulty attracting middle-class students to fight.
The Russian economy is really feeling the pressure now. The elite appear to be angry enough that Putin feels obliged to placate them with the suggestion that the war may be coming to an end. Much can still change, and Russia’s concentration of troops along the front line could still lead to breakthroughs. But the Kremlin is in trouble.
The second change is in the fortunes of the Ukrainians. They also need soldiers – perhaps even more drastically – but they have a lot of robots. Russia’s almost negligible advance on the front lines is largely due to Kiev finding ways to attack, resupply and intercept Russian drone strikes.
It is a truly remarkable achievement in modern warfare, highlighted when wealthy Gulf nations rushed to Zelensky in March for help defending their skies from Iranian drones. Now, he actually has the cards to keep playing despite what Trump said last year.
Moscow has closed the technological gap before, often in a matter of months, and so Ukraine should heed the Russian metaphor of “popping the champagne too soon.”
But even though the Iran war has deprived Ukraine of the global attention it urgently needs, Kiev remains standing, not on its knees: a story of remarkable survival, against all odds, as there was no other choice.
Meanwhile, Putin’s belief that his state resources are infinite is slowly revealing itself as the madness it always was. All wars end, and perhaps Putin has finally realized this.
