The governor of Mato Grosso do Sul, Eduardo Riedel (PP), appears in a comfortable position to run for reelection in 2026. Real Time Big Data research released this Tuesday (12) shows the current head of the state Executive in isolated leadership in all first and second round scenarios tested by the institute.
In the main survey of the dispute, Riedel has 43% of voting intentions. Former federal deputy Fábio Trad (PT) appears in second place, with 21%. Further behind are state deputy João Henrique Catan (Novo), with 11%, and former senator Delcídio do Amaral (PRD), with 7%.
The distance between the governor and his opponents also remains high in the second round simulations. Against Fábio Trad, a scenario considered one of the most competitive in the survey, Riedel records 54% of voting intentions, while the PT member appears with 31%.
In another direct confrontation, the governor reaches 56% compared to Delcídio do Amaral, who has 25%. The institute also tested disputes against João Henrique Catan, Renato Gomes (DC), Lucien Rezende (Psol) and Jefferson Bezerra (Agir). In all cases, Riedel surpasses the 50% mark and maintains a wide advantage.
The governor’s best performance occurs in the simulation against Lucien Rezende. In this scenario, Riedel reaches 63% of voting intentions, while his opponent appears with 14%.
The research reinforces a scenario of low fragmentation of the government base in the state. Since the beginning of his term, Riedel managed to maintain support from sectors linked to agribusiness, mayors from the interior and a relevant part of the Mato Grosso do Sul political class, reducing space for more competitive opposition candidacies.
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The survey also indicates difficulty for the left in expanding electoral presence in the state. Although Fábio Trad appears isolated in second place in the first round, the PT member faces a difference of more than 20 percentage points for the current governor.
On the right, João Henrique Catan emerges as the main alternative name for the state government, but still far from threatening the leadership of the current governor.
The survey was carried out between the 9th and 11th of May with 1,600 voters from Mato Grosso do Sul. The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus, with a confidence level of 95%. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under protocol MS-06412/2026 and was financed with resources from the institute itself.
