One of the most significant moments in international relations this year. The meeting takes place amid trade tensions, geopolitical disputes and an internal American scenario marked by the proximity of mid-term elections.
To the Live CNN, Fernando Brancoliprofessor of International Relations at Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)analyzed what is at stake in this meeting and what the expectations of the international community are.
Common interests and breaking points
According to Brancoli, although the United States and China share common interests in areas such as trade and regional stability, differences between the two countries have deepened in recent years. “The war of tariffs between the United States and China, started by Trump and later responded to by Xi Jinping. There is also one”, highlighted the expert, highlighting the points of tension between the two powers.
Trump’s internal motivations
The professor pointed out that Trump’s trip to China takes place at a politically delicate time in the United States, with . “There is an expectation that Trump could lose control of both the Senate and Congress. One of the bets is that he will seek positive news in China, trade agreements, if possible, reduction of tariffs to try to calm inflation”, analyzed Brancoli. The objective would be to improve economic indicators before the election.
China and the dispute for global influence
Brancoli highlighted that, from the perspective of members of the American government, China had taken advantage of a certain leniency from the United States over recent years. The expert recalled that China developed programs such as the new silk road, with massive investments in several regions, including Venezuela and Iran. “North Americans understand that something needs to be done”, highlighted the professor. “They understand that they are losing space in the world, that China has taken spaces that would historically belong to the United States,” he said.
Interdependence and perspectives of the encounter
Despite the rivalries, the professor highlighted that the United States and China are still very dependent markets on each other, with emphasis on goods such as chips and rare earths. “It’s a peculiar moment between two adversaries. At the same time as they are rivals, they are trying to find benefits that guarantee some kind of more positive logic for both of them”, concluded Brancoli.
Tensions with Iran as a backdrop
The meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping also takes place amid tensions between Washington and Tehran. Brancoli assessed that a new escalation of the conflict is not impossible, especially given the absence of an agreement on uranium enrichment. Statements by the Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahuwhich is betting on new fighting soon, also complicates talks about peace.
The teacher warned that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz It already impacts the price of oil, diesel and food in the United States and around the world. “Either he declares victory and returns home now, leaving the Strait of Hormuz semi-closed, or he stays and bets on a conflict that will continue to generate problems,” he analyzed, referring to Trump’s options.
